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Automatic Stabilizers and the Size of Government: Correcting a Common Misunderstanding

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  • Mr. Carlo Cottarelli
  • Ms. Annalisa Fedelino

Abstract

The size of government is a commonly used variable in many analytical studies on the effects of fiscal policy. An accepted practice is to measure it as the ratio of government spending to GDP. However, this is not the correct metric when computing the stabilization effects of nondiscretionary fiscal policy. Intuitively, public spending does not react to cyclical conditions as much as taxes do - as reflected in the standard zero-one elasticity assumptions for spending and revenue, respectively. This paper shows that the revenue to GDP ratio is the appropriate indicator of government size for the purpose of assessing the stabilization effects of nondiscretionary fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Carlo Cottarelli & Ms. Annalisa Fedelino, 2010. "Automatic Stabilizers and the Size of Government: Correcting a Common Misunderstanding," IMF Working Papers 2010/155, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/155
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    2. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2008. "Social spending and automatic stabilizers in the OECD [‘Real-time output gaps in ex post policy analysis: A red herring?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 716-756.
    3. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
    4. Mr. Steven A. Symansky & Mr. Thomas Baunsgaard, 2009. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/023, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 77, European Central Bank.
    6. Young Lee & Taeyoon Sung, 2007. "Fiscal Policy, Business Cycles and Economic Stabilisation: Evidence from Industrialised and Developing Countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 437-462, December.
    7. Mr. Xavier Debrun & Radhicka Kapoor, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability: Automatic Stabilizers Work, Always and Everywhere," IMF Working Papers 2010/111, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Steven A. Symansky & Thomas Baunsgaard, 2009. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/23, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2015. "Government Size and Business Cycle Volatility: How Important are Credit Constraints?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(326), pages 201-221, April.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Sweden: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/277, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Philipp Heimberger, 2022. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis," wiiw Working Papers 220, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
    5. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2019. "Output-volatility reducing effect of automatic stabilizers: Evidence from nine EMU member states," EconStor Preprints 206687, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2021. "Output-volatility reducing effects of automatic stabilizers: Policy implications for EMU member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1388-1414.
    7. Fatás Antonio & Mihov Ilian, 2012. "Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-68, October.
    8. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "How do policies influence GDP tail risks?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1339, OECD Publishing.

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