The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle
AbstractMost countries have automatic rules in their tax-and-transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic fluctuations. This paper measures how effective they are. We put forward a model that merges the standard incomplete-markets model of consumption and inequality with the new Keynesian model of nominal rigidities and business cycles, and that includes most of the main potential stabilizers in the U.S. data, as well as the theoretical channels by which they may work. We find that the conventional argument that stabilizing disposable income will stabilize aggregate demand plays a negligible role on the effectiveness of the stabilizers, whereas tax-and-transfer programs that affect inequality and social insurance can have a large effect on aggregate volatility. However, as currently designed, the set of stabilizers in place in the United States has barely had any effect on volatility. According to our model, expanding safety-net programs, like food stamps, has the largest potential to enhance the effectiveness of the stabilizers.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19000.
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Note: EFG ME PE
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2013. "The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S. business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 9454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-05-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-IAS-2013-05-05 (Insurance Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-05-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2013-05-05 (Public Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Nils Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012.
"Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents,"
12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Ganong, Peter & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2013. "The Decline, Rebound, and Further Rise in SNAP Enrollment: Disentangling Business Cycle Fluctuations and Policy Changes," Working Paper Series rwp13-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2013.
"Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle,"
PSE Working Papers
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II: Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/003, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher Reicher, 2013. "A set of estimated fiscal rules for a cross-section of countries: Stabilization and consolidation through which instruments?," Kiel Working Papers 1850, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.