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Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR

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  • Mr. Christoph Duenwald

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Christoph Duenwald, 2000. "Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 2000/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji & Mr. Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/020, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ryan Fan & S. Thomas Ng & James Wong, 2010. "Reliability of the Box-Jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerity," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 241-254.
    3. Clemente De Lucia, 2007. "Did the FED Inflate a Housing Price Bubble? A Cointegration Analysis between the 1980s and the 1990s," ISAE Working Papers 82, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    4. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    6. Mr. Philip Schellekens, 2003. "Deflation in Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 2003/077, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013. "Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
    8. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
    9. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2016. "Persistence, mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830--2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(34), pages 3244-3252, July.
    10. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    11. Ting Lan, 2019. "Intrinsic bubbles and Granger causality in the Hong Kong residential property market," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 340-370, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies," BIS Working Papers 263, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2010. "Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Hong Kong: 1985-2006," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    15. Wei Li, 2008. "Property tax and speculative bubble: An empirical analysis of Tianjin," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(4), pages 627-643, December.
    16. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2012/217, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ms. Lisbeth S Zacho & Mr. Qin Lei, 2001. "Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness," IMF Working Papers 2001/129, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Eloisa T Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Are Asia-Pacific Housing Prices Too High For Comfort?," Working Papers 2008-11, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.

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