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Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper develops a small analytical model to explore the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment and the timing of the implementation of an adjustment program featuring a nominal devaluation. The effects of postponing adjustment depend on the source of the original shock. In the case of a fiscal expansion, postponement implies a larger eventual devaluation and greater deviations of macroeconomic variables from their steady-state values. For adverse terms of trade shocks, postponement does not affect the size of the eventual devaluation, but does magnify the degree of post-devaluation overshooting by key macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 1989. "Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1989/011, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1989/011
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    2. Ahec Šonje, Amina, 1999. "Leading Indicators of Currency and Banking Crises: Croatia and the World," MPRA Paper 82574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    4. Bodea, Cristina, 2010. "The political economy of fixed exchange rate regimes: The experience of post-communist countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 248-264, June.

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