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The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

Author

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  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2000. "The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises," IMF Economic Issues 2000/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfeci:2000/002
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    Cited by:

    1. Mora Cortez, Roberto & Johnston, Wesley J. & Ehret, Michael, 2023. "“Good Times–Bad Times” – Relationship marketing through business cycles," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Andry Alamsyah & Dian Puteri Ramadhani & Farida Titik Kristanti & Khairunnisa Khairunnisa, 2022. "Transaction Network Structural Shift under Crisis: Macro and Micro Perspectives," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-12, February.
    3. Karmann, Alexander & Greßmann, Oliver & Hott, Christian, 2002. "Contagion of currency crises: Some theoretical and empirical analysis," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    4. Pederson, Glenn D. & Khitarishvili, Tamar, 2001. "Trade And Macroeconomic Policy: What Does It Mean For Farmers And Lenders?," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2001 33081, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.

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