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How have Government Policies Driven Rural Credit in India: A Brief Empirical Analysis, 1969-2009

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  • Pal, Debdatta
  • Sapre, Amey
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    Abstract

    This paper makes a modest attempt to identify structural breaks in outstanding credit of rural branches of Scheduled Commercial Banks in India during the period of 1969 to 2009. With the use of endogenous method, we find three possible structural shifts in growth, i.e. 1981, 1989 and 1999 and thus four different regimes of growth and performance. These structural changes are analyzed with respect to branch licensing policy and priority sector lending by the Schedule Commercial Banks. Empirical evidence and growth performance shows that such policies have been instrumental in changing the off-take of rural credit in a significant way. The study also finds corroborative evidence of break dates and growth performance in evaluating the outcomes of the prevailing banking policies.

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    Paper provided by Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department in its series IIMA Working Papers with number WP2010-12-02.

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    Handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:wp2010-12-02

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    1. Achim Zeileis & Friedrich Leisch & Kurt Hornik & Christian Kleiber, . "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(i02).
    2. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2004. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 04/104, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    4. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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