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High-frequency changes in shopping behaviours, promotions, and the measurement of inflation: evidence from the Great Lockdown

Author

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  • Xavier Jaravel

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and London School of Economics)

  • Martin O'Connell

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Wisconsin)

Abstract

We use real-time scanner data in Great Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the drivers of the inflationary spike at the beginning of lockdown and to quantify the impact of high-frequency changes in shopping behaviours and promotions on inflation measurement. Although changes in product-level expenditure shares were unusually high during lockdown, we find that the induced bias in price indices that do not account for expenditure switching is not larger than in prior years. We also document substantial consumer switching towards online shopping and across retailers, but show this was not a key driver of the inflationary spike. In contrast, a reduction in price and quantity promotions was key to driving higher inflation, and lower use of promotions by low-income consumers explains why they experienced moderately lower inflation. Overall, changes in shopping behaviours played only a minor role in driving higher inflation during lockdown; higher prices were the main cause, in particular through a reduced frequency of promotions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Jaravel & Martin O'Connell, 2020. "High-frequency changes in shopping behaviours, promotions, and the measurement of inflation: evidence from the Great Lockdown," IFS Working Papers W20/33, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:20/33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Cavallo, 2017. "Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-channel Retailers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 283-303, January.
    2. Rachel Griffith & Ephraim Leibtag & Andrew Leicester & Aviv Nevo, 2009. "Consumer Shopping Behavior: How Much Do Consumers Save?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 99-120, Spring.
    3. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    4. Xavier Jaravel & Martin O'Connell, 2020. "Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown," IFS Working Papers W20/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2010. "Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 691-723, June.
    6. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox, 2020. "Measuring Real Consumption and CPI Bias under Lockdown Conditions," NBER Working Papers 27144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kaplan, Greg & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2017. "Inflation at the household level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 19-38.
    8. Pascal Seiler, 2020. "Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Alberto Cavallo, 2020. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," NBER Working Papers 27352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Xavier Jaravel, 2019. "The Unequal Gains from Product Innovations: Evidence from the U.S. Retail Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 715-783.
    11. Jaravel, Xavier & O'Connell, Martin, 2020. "Real-time price indices: Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hindriks, Jean & Madio, Leonardo & Serse, Valerio, 2022. "How do retailers compete on price promotions? Evidence from a temporary promotion ban in Belgium," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2022005, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Chowdhury, Aftab & Dixon, Huw David, 2023. "Measuring inflation during the Pandemic with the benefit of hindsight," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. John Gathergood & Fabian Gunzinger & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & Neil Stewart, 2020. "Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending," Papers 2012.09336, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

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