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Short-Term Dependencies between the Volatility of Currency, Money and Capital Markets: The Case of Poland

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Author Info
Janusz Brzeszczynski
Robert Kelm

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Abstract

The paper presents GARCH models for the Euro-Polish zloty and US dollar-Polish zloty currency rates. It applies the approach within which both the conditional variance function and the mean equation of the ARCH class model are expanded simultaneously. The basic regression equation incorporates causal dependencies between currency prices and the main characteristics of domestic and international currency, money and capital markets. The paper provides an insight into the currency market microstructure as the presented investigation takes into account the intradaily features of the market. Model selection and performance has been evaluated by the use of direction quality measures.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University in its series CERT Discussion Papers with number 0409.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:hwe:certdp:0409

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Related research
Keywords: currency market; GARCH models; direction quality measures; emerging markets;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard K. Lyons, 1995. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Working Papers 4984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1992. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 4193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  5. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
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  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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