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Pension Expenditure Projections, Pension Liabilities and European Union Fiscal Rules


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  • Franco, Daniele
  • Marino, Maria Rosaria
  • Zotteri, Stefania


In the current debate on the European Union (EU) fiscal rules there is a widespread consensus on the need to place more focus on government debt and long-term fiscal sustainability in the surveillance of budgetary positions. More specifically, pension developments should be taken into account in assessing fiscal sustainability. The way to make this operational has not yet been defined. The paper examines the pension expenditure projections available in EU countries and their use in the assessment of fiscal sustainability. While acknowledging the progress in the availability and quality of projections, the paper notes that their comparability is still unsatisfactory. Any mechanical use of existing pension expenditure projections should therefore be avoided. The paper also examines the different definitions of pension liabilities and their potential role in the EU fiscal framework. It argues that pension liabilities may bring a clearer understanding of the impact of fiscal policies, may provide a measure of the cost of terminating pay-as-you-go pension schemes and may be useful for the measurement of deficits computed on accrual basis. However, the level of pension liabilities does not provide indications concerning the sustainability of pension schemes and their effects on public budgets. Pension liabilities should not be added to conventional debt. The paper argues that both pension expenditure projections and estimates of pension liabilities can complement the deficit and debt indicators currently used in the EU fiscal rules. The paper concludes by pointing to the need of improving some technical and organisational aspects concerning age-related expenditure projections, such as the independence of forecasters, the transparency of projections and the homogeneity of methods.

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Paper provided by Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Paper with number 231.

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Length: 63 p.
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:231

Note: International Workshop on The Balance Sheet of Social Security Pensions Organised by PIE and COE/RES, Hitotsubashi University, Hitotsubashi Collaboration Center, Tokyo, Japan, 1st-2nd November 2004, Preliminary draft
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Cited by:
  1. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
  2. Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
  3. Gabriele Semeraro, 2007. "Should financial accounts include future pension liabilities," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 1, volume 25, pages 179-198 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. D. Blanchet & S. Le Minez, 2012. "Joint macro/micro evaluations of accrued-to-date pension liabilities: an application to French reforms," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2012-14, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  5. Leopold Diebalek & Walpurga Köhler-Töglhofer & Doris Prammer, 2006. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 78–109.
  6. Giang, Thanh Long, 2005. "Pension Liabilities and Generational Relations: The Case of Vietnam," MPRA Paper 970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2006.
  7. Ignazio Visco & Barry Eichengreen & Gilles Mourre & Declan Costello & Giuseppe Carone & Nuria Diez Guardia & Bartosz Przywara & Aino Salomäki & Vincenzo Galasso & Mark Weth & Sebastian Schich & Eti, 2007. "Money, Finance and Demography: The Consequences of Ageing," SUERF Colloquium Volumes, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan & Frank Lierman.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances," IMF Working Papers 10/177, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Heikki Oksanen, 2005. "Actuarial Neutrality across Generations Applied to Public Pensions under Population Ageing: Effects on Government Finances and National Saving," CESifo Working Paper Series 1501, CESifo Group Munich.


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