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Technological Change and Earnings Inequality in the U.S.: Implications for Optimal Taxation

Author

Listed:
  • Brinca, Pedro

    (Nova School of Business and Economics)

  • Duarte, João B.

    (Nova School of Business and Economics)

  • Holter, Hans

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Oliveira, João G.

    (Nova School of Business and Economics)

Abstract

Since 1980, there has been a steady increase in earnings inequality alongside rapid technological growth in the U.S. economy. To what extent does technological change explain the observed increase in earnings dispersion? How does it affect the optimal progressivity of the tax system? To answer these questions, we develop an incomplete markets model with occupational choice. We estimate an aggregate production function with capital-occupation complementarity and four occupations that differ with respect to cognitive complexity and routine task intensity. We calibrate our model to resemble the U.S. economy in 1980 and find that technological transformation can fully account for the increase in earnings dispersion between 1980 and 2015. The main driver is the rising relative wage of non-routine cognitive occupations, which benefit the most from complementarity with capital. Although technological growth is associated with higher earnings inequality, it leads to a significant drop in optimal tax progressivity. Lower progressivity leads to an inflow of workers into higher-paid occupations. This increases output but also raises the wages of the occupations at the bottom of the wage distribution, dampening the redistributive gains from progressive taxation.

Suggested Citation

  • Brinca, Pedro & Duarte, João B. & Holter, Hans & Oliveira, João G., 2023. "Technological Change and Earnings Inequality in the U.S.: Implications for Optimal Taxation," Memorandum 1/2023, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2023_001
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings Inequality; Taxation; Technological Change; Automation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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