IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/oruesi/2020_016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Drivers of automation and consequences for jobs in engineering services: an agent-based modelling approach

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper studies the uptake of AI-driven automation and its impact on employment, using a dynamic agent-based model (ABM). It simulates the adoption of automation software as well as job destruction and job creation in its wake. There are two types of agents: manufacturing firms and engineering services firms. The agents choose between two business models: consulting or automated software. From the engineering firms’ point of view, the model exhibits static economies of scale in the software model and dynamic (learning by doing) economies of scale in the consultancy model. From the manufacturing firms’ point of view, switching to the software model requires restructuring of production and there are network effects in switching. The ABM matches engineering and manufacturing agents and derives employment of engineers and the tasks they perform, i.e. consultancy, software development, software maintenance, or employment in manufacturing. Policy parameters influencing the results are occupational licensing and protection of intellectual property rights. We find that the uptake of software is gradual; slow in the first few years and then accelerates. Software is fully adopted after about 18 years in the base line run. The adoption rate is slower the higher the license fee for software, while the adoption rate is faster the higher the mark-up rate of consultancy. Employment of engineers shifts from consultancy to software development and to new jobs in manufacturing. Spells of unemployment may occur, if skilled jobs creation in manufacturing is slow. Finally, the model generates boom and bust cycles in the software sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyvik Nordås, Hildegunn & Klügl, Franziska, 2020. "Drivers of automation and consequences for jobs in engineering services: an agent-based modelling approach," Working Papers 2020:16, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2020_016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oru.se/globalassets/oru-sv/institutioner/hh/workingpapers/workingpapers2020/wp-16-2020.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feenstra, Robert C., 2018. "Restoring the product variety and pro-competitive gains from trade with heterogeneous firms and bounded productivity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 16-27.
    2. Baldwin, Richard & Forslid, Rikard, 2023. "Globotics and Development: When Manufacturing Is Jobless and Services Are Tradeable," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3-4), pages 302-311, October.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    4. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klügl, Franziska & Kyvik Nordås, Hildegunn, 2021. "AI-enabled Automation, Trade, and the Future of Engineering Services," Working Papers 2021:16, Örebro University, School of Business.
    2. Andreas Baur & Lisandra Flach & Isabella Gourevich & Florian Unger, 2023. "North-South Trade: The Impact of Robotization," CESifo Working Paper Series 10865, CESifo.
    3. Sarbu, Miruna, 2022. "The impact of industry 4.0 on innovation performance: Insights from German manufacturing and service firms," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Niu, Meng & Wang, Zhenguo & Zhang, Yabin, 2022. "How information and communication technology drives (routine and non-routine) jobs: Structural path and decomposition analysis for China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    5. Stefan Schweikl & Robert Obermaier, 2020. "Lessons from three decades of IT productivity research: towards a better understanding of IT-induced productivity effects," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 461-507, November.
    6. Pi, Jiancai & Fan, Yanwei, 2021. "The impact of robots on equilibrium unemployment of unionized workers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 663-675.
    7. Jiaqi Chang & Qingxin Lan & Wan Tang & Hailong Chen & Jun Liu & Yunpeng Duan, 2023. "Research on the Impact of Digital Economy on Manufacturing Total Factor Productivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Liu, Changqing & Li, Lei, 2021. "Place-based techno-industrial policy and innovation: Government responses to the information revolution in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Pedersen, Torben & Scedrova, Anna & Grecu, Alina, 2022. "The effects of IT investments and skilled labor on firms’ value added," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Sun, Zhe & Zhao, Liang & Kaur, Puneet & Islam, Nazrul & Dhir, Amandeep, 2023. "Theorizing the relationship between the digital economy and firm productivity: The idiosyncrasies of firm-specific contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Xiaozhong Li & Jun Ling, 2023. "The Impact of Manufacturing Intelligence on Green Development Efficiency: A Study Based on Chinese Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.
    12. Fındık, Derya & Tansel, Aysit, 2013. "Resources on the stage: a firm level analysis of the ict adoption in Turkey," MPRA Paper 65956, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2014.
    13. Jose Asturias & Manuel García-Santana & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1881-1940.
    14. Alhassan Abdul-Wakeel Karakara & Evans Osabuohien, 2020. "ICT adoption, competition and innovation of informal firms in West Africa: a comparative study of Ghana and Nigeria," Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 397-414, June.
    15. Karl Whelan, 2002. "Computers, Obsolescence, And Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 445-461, August.
    16. Dana Benešová & Miroslav Hušek, 2019. "Factors for efficient use of information and communication technologies influencing sustainable position of service enterprises in Slovakia," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(3), pages 1182-1194, March.
    17. Jonathan Temple, 2002. "The Assessment: The New Economy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 241-264.
    18. Dennis C. Hutschenreiter & Tommaso Santini & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Automation and sectoral reallocation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 335-362, May.
    19. Marina Rybalka, 2015. "The innovative input mix. Assessing the importance of R&D and ICT investments for firm performance in manufacturing and services," Discussion Papers 801, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    20. Irene Bertschek & Joern Block & Alexander S. Kritikos & Caroline Stiel, 2024. "German financial state aid during Covid-19 pandemic: Higher impact among digitalized self-employed," Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-2), pages 76-97, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology Uptake; Employment; Automation; Economic Modelling; Agent-Based Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • L84 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Personal, Professional, and Business Services
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2020_016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ieoruse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.