The Propagation of Financial Extremes
AbstractWhat drives extreme economic events? Motivated by recent theory, and events in US subprime markets, we begin to open the black box of extremes. Specifically, we extend standard economic analysis of extreme risk, allowing for dynamics and endogeneity. We explain how endogenous extremes may arise in an economy of individuals who engage in resource transfers. Our model suggests that susceptibility to extremes depends on differences in marginal substitution rates. Using over a century of daily stock price data, we construct empirical probabilities of extremes, and document interesting dynamic behavior. We find evidence that extremes are endogenous. This latter finding raises the possibility that control of extremes is a public good, and that extreme events may be an important market failure for regulators and central banks to correct.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008/25.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 10 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
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Postal: NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Phone: +47 55 95 92 93
Fax: +47 55 95 96 50
Web page: http://www.nhh.no/en/research-faculty/department-of-business-and-management-science.aspx
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Extreme Event; Subprime Market; Dynamics; Endogeneity; Public Good; Central Bank Policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-02-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-02-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-02-22 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2009-02-22 (Risk Management)
- NEP-URE-2009-02-22 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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