A simple specification procedure for the transition function in persistent nonlinear time series models
AbstractA simple procedure for the specification of the transition function describing the regime switch in nonlinear autoregressive models is proposed. This procedure is based on auxiliary regressions of unit root tests and is applicable to a variety of transition functions. In contrast to other procedures, complicated and computer-intense estimation of the candidate models is not necessary. Our approach entirely relies on OLS estimation of auxiliary regressions instead. We use standard information criteria for the selection of the unknown transition function. Our Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the approach works well in practice. Empirical applications to the S&P500 price-earnings ratio and the US interest spread highlight the merits of our suggested procedure.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover with number dp-500.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Nonlinearity; Smooth transition; Threshold model; Model selection; Unit root;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-09-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2012-09-03 (Econometric Time Series)
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- Grote, Claudia & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2013. "Testing for Cointegration in a Double-LSTR Framework," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen FakultÃ¤t der Leibniz UniversitÃ¤t Hannover dp-514, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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