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The Dynamics of Lobbying under Uncertainty: On Political Liberalization in Arab Countries

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  • Raouf Boucekkine

    ()
    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM), IRES-CORE - Université Catholique de Louvain)

  • Fabien Prieur

    ()
    (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Université Montpellier I - CNRS : UMR5474 - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR1135 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM])

  • Klarizze Puzon

    ()
    (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Université Montpellier I - CNRS : UMR5474 - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR1135 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM])

Abstract

We consider a framework à la Wirl (1994) where political liberalization is the outcome of a lobbying differential game between a conservative elite and a reformist group, the former player pushing against political liberalization in opposition to the latter. In contrast to the benchmark model, we introduce uncertainty. We consider the typical case of an Arab oil exporter country where oil rents are fiercely controlled by the conservative elite. We assume that the higher the oil rents, the more reluctant to political liberalization the elite is. Two states of nature are considered (high vs low resource rents). We then compute the Market-perfect equilibria of the corresponding piecewise deterministic differential game. It is shown that introducing uncertainty in this manner increases the set of strategies compared to Wirl's original setting. In particular, it is shown that the cost of lobbying might be significantly increased under uncertainty with respect to the benchmark. This ultimately highlights some specificities of the political liberalization at stake in Arab countries and the associated risks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00801961.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00801961

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Keywords: Rent-seeking ; lobbying ; natural resources ; Arab countries ; piecewise deterministic differential games;

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  1. Francesco Caselli & Tom Cunningham, 2009. "Leader Behavior and the Natural Resource Curse," CEP Discussion Papers dp0913, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Rafik BOUKLIA-HASSANE, 2011. "Rente, corruption et violence : l’émergence d’un ordre nouveau dans les pays arabes ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 92, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  3. Linster, Bruce G, 1994. " Cooperative Rent-Seeking," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 81(1-2), pages 23-34, October.
  4. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Ove Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2005. "Cursed by resources or institutions?," Working Paper Series 5705, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  5. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
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