IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03898872.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Term structure modelling with overnight rates beyond stochastic continuity

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Fontana
  • Zorana Grbac

    (UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

  • Thorsten Schmidt

Abstract

In the current reform of interest rate benchmarks, a central role is played by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) in the US. A key feature of RFRs is the presence of jumps and spikes at periodic time intervals as a result of regulatory and liquidity constraints. This corresponds to stochastic discontinuities (i.e., jumps occurring at predetermined dates) in the dynamics of RFRs. In this work, we propose a general modeling framework where RFRs and term rates can have stochastic discontinuities and characterize absence of arbitrage in an extended HJM setup. When the term rate is generated by the RFR itself, we show that it solves a BSDE, whose driver is determined by the HJM drift restrictions. In general, this BSDE may admit multiple solutions and we provide sufficient conditions ensuring uniqueness. We develop a tractable specification driven by affine semimartingales, also extending the classical short rate approach to the case of stochastic discontinuities. In this context, we show that a simple specification allows to capture stylized facts of the jump behavior of overnight rates. In a Gaussian setting, we provide explicit valuation formulas for bonds and caplets. Finally, we study hedging in the sense of local risk-minimization when the underlying term structures have stochastic discontinuities.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Term structure modelling with overnight rates beyond stochastic continuity," Working Papers hal-03898872, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03898872
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03898872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03898872/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob Bjerre Skov & David Skovmand, 2021. "Dynamic Term Structure Models for SOFR Futures," Papers 2103.11180, arXiv.org.
    2. Marek Rutkowski & Matthew Bickersteth, 2021. "Pricing and Hedging of SOFR Derivatives under Differential Funding Costs and Collateralization," Papers 2112.14033, arXiv.org.
    3. Claudio Fontana & Markus Pelger & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "On the existence of sure profits via flash strategies," Papers 1708.03099, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Term structure modelling with overnight rates beyond stochastic continuity," Papers 2202.00929, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    2. Claudio Fontana, 2022. "Caplet pricing in affine models for alternative risk-free rates," Papers 2202.09116, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    3. David Skovmand & Jacob Bjerre Skov, 2022. "Decomposing LIBOR in Transition: Evidence from the Futures Markets," Papers 2201.06930, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    4. Alessandro Gnoatto & Silvia Lavagnini, 2023. "Cross-Currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework in the Multiple-Curve Setting," Papers 2312.13057, arXiv.org.
    5. Alessio Calvelli, 2022. "No-Arbitrage Pricing, Dynamics and Forward Prices of Collateralized Derivatives," Papers 2208.08746, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    6. Marek Rutkowski & Matthew Bickersteth, 2021. "Pricing and Hedging of SOFR Derivatives under Differential Funding Costs and Collateralization," Papers 2112.14033, arXiv.org.
    7. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Sandrine Gumbel & Thorsten Schmidt, 2018. "Term structure modeling for multiple curves with stochastic discontinuities," Papers 1810.09882, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    8. Backwell, Alex & Hayes, Joshua, 2022. "Expected and Unexpected Jumps in the Overnight Rate: Consistent Management of the Libor Transition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Sandrine Gümbel & Thorsten Schmidt, 2020. "Term structure modelling for multiple curves with stochastic discontinuities," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 465-511, April.
    10. Fred Espen Benth & Nils Detering & Luca Galimberti, 2022. "Pricing options on flow forwards by neural networks in Hilbert space," Papers 2202.11606, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03898872. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.