IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03097483.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A multi-speed fiscal Europe? Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the EU Former Communist Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Cezara Vinturis

    (UVT - Universitatea de Vest din Timișoara [România] = West University of Timișoara [Romania] = Université Ouest de Timișoara [Roumanie], CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper shows that, contrary to their favourable effect in the EU non-FCC (Former Communist Countries), fiscal rules do not significantly affect fiscal performance in the group of EU FCC. This finding, which may echo differences between FCC and other EU inherited from the Cold War period, is robust when considering various estimation methods, dividing fiscal rules along various dimensions, and using several observed and computed measures of fiscal performance. However, when going beyond the simple presence of fiscal rules, we find that an improvement of the strength of fiscal rules significantly affects fiscal performance in EU FCC, with a magnitude higher than that in EU non-FCC. Our findings are particularly important from the perspective of the future Euro zone and European Union enlargements, which involve former communist countries, and go along with the adoption of various types of fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Cezara Vinturis, 2019. "A multi-speed fiscal Europe? Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the EU Former Communist Countries," Working Papers hal-03097483, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03097483
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uca.hal.science/hal-03097483
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://uca.hal.science/hal-03097483/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Bun, Maurice J. G. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2003. "On the diminishing returns of higher-order terms in asymptotic expansions of bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 145-152, May.
    3. Heinemann, Friedrich & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2018. "Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-92.
    4. Tapsoba, René, 2012. "Do National Numerical Fiscal Rules really shape fiscal behaviours in developing countries? A treatment effect evaluation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1356-1369.
    5. Hallerberg, Mark & Ylã„Outinen, Sami, 2010. "Political Power, Fiscal Institutions and Budgetary Outcomes in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 45-62, April.
    6. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Cezara Vinturis & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Can fiscal rules curb income inequality? Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-02423126, HAL.
    7. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Sloof, Randolph, 2022. "The political economy of fiscal transparency and independent fiscal councils," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
    10. Jean‐Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba, 2018. "Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(615), pages 2755-2784, November.
    11. Sébastien Dessus & Jose L. Diaz‐Sanchez & Aristomene Varoudakis, 2016. "Fiscal Rules and the Pro‐cyclicality of Public Investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 887-901, August.
    12. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2009. "Borrowing to Finance Public Investment? The ‘Golden Rule of Public Finance’ Reconsidered in an Endogenous Growth Setting," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 103-133, March.
    13. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    14. Monika Sherwood, 2015. "Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks in the EU Member States," European Economy - Discussion Papers 021, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Xavier Debrun & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini & Joaquim Ayuso-i-Casals & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2008. "Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union [‘Constitutions, politics, and economics’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(54), pages 298-362.
    16. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 5-33, November.
    17. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
    18. Badinger, Harald & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2017. "The case for fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 334-343.
    19. Budina, Nina & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Fiscal Policies in Eastern Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 47-64, Summer.
    20. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "National numerical fiscal rules: Not complied with, but still effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 67-81.
    21. Gleich, Holger, 2003. "Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    22. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    23. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 71-90, March.
    24. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.
    25. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    26. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Mr. Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules: Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2018/004, International Monetary Fund.
    27. J. Ayuso-i-Casals & S. Deroose & E. Flores & L. Moulin, 2007. "The role of fiscal rules and institutions in shaping budgetary outcomes," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 275, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    28. Bohn, Henning & Inman, Robert P., 1996. "Balanced-budget rules and public deficits: evidence from the U.S. states," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 13-76, December.
    29. Afonso, António & Hauptmeier, Sebastian, 2009. "Fiscal behaviour in the European Union: rules, fiscal decentralization and government indebtedness," Working Paper Series 1054, European Central Bank.
    30. Mrs. Nina Budina & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Miss Anke Weber & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2012. "Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the "Next-Generation" Rules: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2012/187, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zapal, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-166.
    33. von Hagen, Jurgen & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3259-3279, December.
    34. Mr. Xavier Debrun & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions: Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2007/171, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Hsiao,Cheng & Pesaran,M. Hashem & Lahiri,Kajal & Lee,Lung Fei (ed.), 1999. "Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521631693.
    36. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    37. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    38. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    39. Glenn Follette & Byron F. Lutz, 2012. "Fiscal rules, what does the American experience tell us?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. John Thornton & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2018. "Fiscal Rules And Government Borrowing Costs: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 446-459, January.
    41. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Jorge Onrubia & Javier Salinas-Jiménez, 2009. "Do Budget Institutions Matter?: Fiscal Consolidation in the New EU Member States," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 60-91, January.
    42. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Ms. Anita Tuladhar & Mr. Julio Escolano & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Ms. Juliane Sarnes, 2012. "Fiscal Performance, Institutional Design and Decentralization in European Union Countries," IMF Working Papers 2012/045, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    44. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael M. & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2016. "Promoting sustainable public finances in the European Union: The role of fiscal rules and government efficiency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    45. Till Cordes & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Miss Anke Weber, 2015. "Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2015/029, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Allen Schick, 2010. "Post-Crisis Fiscal Rules: Stabilising Public Finance while Responding to Economic Aftershocks," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Kea Baret & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "National fiscal rules and fiscal discipline in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(20), pages 2337-2359, April.
    2. Mihaela Onofrei & Tudorel Toader & Anca Florentina Vatamanu & Florin Oprea, 2021. "Impact of Governments’ Fiscal Behaviors on Public Finance Sustainability: A Comparative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Amelie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Kea BARET & Alexandru MINEA, 2019. "National Fiscal Rules Adoption and Fiscal Discipline in the European Union," Working Papers of BETA 2019-40, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    7. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    8. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    10. Kea BARET, 2021. "Fiscal rules’ compliance and Social Welfare," Working Papers of BETA 2021-38, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2020. "Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. López-Herrera, Carmen & Cordero, José M. & Pedraja-Chaparro, Francisco & Polo, Cristina, 2023. "Fiscal rules and their influence on public sector efficiency," MPRA Paper 119018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "How do fiscal rules shape governments' spending behavior?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 322-341, April.
    15. Mihaela Onofrei & Anca Gavriluţă (Vatamanu) & Ionel Bostan & Florin Oprea & Gigel Paraschiv & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "The Implication of Fiscal Principles and Rules on Promoting Sustainable Public Finances in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    16. Caselli, Francesca & Reynaud, Julien, 2020. "Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Andrian, Leandro Gaston & Valencia, Oscar & Hirs, Jorge & Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Cycles: Quality (Always) Matters," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12639, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change," IMF Working Papers 2019/186, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Caselli, Francesca & Wingender, Philippe, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits✰," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2019. "When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 125-141.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal rules; fiscal performance; EU former communist countries;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03097483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.