IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-02364549.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efficiency and volatility of spot and futures agricultural markets: Impact of trade frequencies
[Efficience et volatilité des marchés agricoles spot et à termes: L'impact de la fréquence des transactions]

Author

Listed:
  • David Batista Soares

    (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech, GREYC - Groupe de Recherche en Informatique, Image et Instrumentation de Caen - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ENSICAEN - École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs de Caen - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Bretto

    (Equipe CODAG - Laboratoire GREYC - UMR6072 - GREYC - Groupe de Recherche en Informatique, Image et Instrumentation de Caen - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ENSICAEN - École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs de Caen - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Joël Priolon

    (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

Abstract

In efficient markets, asset prices are equal to their fundamentals. This classical view is considered valid for agricultural commodities' spot and futures markets. However, fragmentation of orders impacts price dynamics, leading to modification in spot and futures' trade frequency, relative trade frequency, and quantities exchanged. To highlight public policies on the impacts of fragmentation of orders, it is necessary to improve the understanding of its theoretical consequences. Based on a sequential trading framework, our main result showed that unbiased prices and a minimal volatility of fundamental basis are achieved not with optimal trade frequencies but with an optimal relative trade frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • David Batista Soares & Alain Bretto & Joël Priolon, 2019. "Efficiency and volatility of spot and futures agricultural markets: Impact of trade frequencies [Efficience et volatilité des marchés agricoles spot et à termes: L'impact de la fréquence des transa," Working Papers hal-02364549, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02364549
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02364549
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02364549/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michail Anthropelos & Michael Kupper & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2015. "An equilibrium model for spot and forward prices of commodities," Papers 1502.00674, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    2. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Moschini, Giancarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 88-153, Elsevier.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    5. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    7. Janis Back & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "Commodity Price Dynamics And Derivative Valuation: A Review," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(06), pages 1-30.
    8. Holbrook Working, 1976. "Futures Trading and Hedging," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Economics of Futures Trading, chapter 2, pages 68-82, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Boehmer, Beatrice & Boehmer, Ekkehart, 2003. "Trading your neighbor's ETFs: Competition or fragmentation?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1667-1703, September.
    10. Kwan, Amy & Masulis, Ronald & McInish, Thomas H., 2015. "Trading rules, competition for order flow and market fragmentation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 330-348.
    11. Bennett, Paul & Wei, Li, 2006. "Market structure, fragmentation, and market quality," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 49-78, February.
    12. Michail Anthropelos & Michael Kupper & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2018. "An Equilibrium Model for Spot and Forward Prices of Commodities," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 152-180, February.
    13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    14. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carmen López-Martín & Sonia Benito Muela & Raquel Arguedas, 2021. "Efficiency in cryptocurrency markets: new evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 403-431, September.
    2. Curtis, Charles E., Jr. & Carriker, Gordon L., 1988. "Estimating Implied Volatility Directly from "Nearest-to-the-Money" Commodity Option Premiums," Working Papers 116875, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, 2015. "Derivative Security Pricing," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-662-45906-5, July-Dece.
    6. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
    7. Calum G. Turvey, 2006. "Managing food industry business and financial risks with commodity-linked credit instruments," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 523-545.
    8. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    9. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    10. Jaramillo-López, Oscar Andrés & Forero-Laverde, Germán & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2020. "Evolución del supuesto de normalidad en finanzas: un análisis epistemológico del tipo Popper-Kuhn ¿Por qué la normalidad no cae en desuso? [Evolution of the assumption of normality in finance: a ep," MPRA Paper 101938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Robert C. Merton, 2006. "Paul Samuelson and Financial Economics," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 50(2), pages 9-31, October.
    12. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    13. Gustavo Silva Araujo & Ricardo Alves Carmo Ribeiro, 2018. "Is Petrobras Options Market Efficient? A Study Using The Delta-Gamma Neutral Strategy," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 126, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Rodriguez, Ricardo J., 2002. "Lognormal option pricing for arbitrary underlying assets: a synthesis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 577-586.
    15. Paulo Ferreira & Éder J.A.L. Pereira & Hernane B.B. Pereira, 2020. "From Big Data to Econophysics and Its Use to Explain Complex Phenomena," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-10, July.
    16. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    17. Giuseppe Garofalo, 2014. "Irreducible complexities: from Gödel and Turing to the paradigm of Imperfect Knowledge Economics," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3463-3474, November.
    18. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, December.
    19. Jurich, Stephen N., 2021. "Does off-exchange trading decrease in the presence of uncertainty?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 201-213.
    20. Vasile Brătian & Ana-Maria Acu & Camelia Oprean-Stan & Emil Dinga & Gabriela-Mariana Ionescu, 2021. "Efficient or Fractal Market Hypothesis? A Stock Indexes Modelling Using Geometric Brownian Motion and Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-20, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities; spot and futures prices; market efficiency; volatility; stock and fragmentation;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02364549. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.