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Dynamic consistency of expected utility under non-classical(quantum) uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Ivanovitch Danilov

    (CEMI - Central Economic Mathematical Institute - RAS - Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow])

  • Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vassili Vergopoulos

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Quantum cognition is a recent and rapidely growing field. In this paper we developan expected utility theory in a context of non-classical (quantum) uncertainty. We replace the classical state space with a Hilbert space which allows introducing the concept of quantum lottery. Within that framework we formulate sufficient and necessary axioms on preferences over quantum lotteries to establish a representation theorem. We show that demanding the consistency of choice behavior conditional on new information is equivalent to the von Neuman-Luders postulate applied to beliefs. In our context, dynamic consistency is shown not to secure Savage's Sure Thing Principle (in its dynamic version). Finally, we discuss the interpretation and value of our results for rationality and behavioral economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Ivanovitch Danilov & Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky & Vassili Vergopoulos, 2016. "Dynamic consistency of expected utility under non-classical(quantum) uncertainty," PSE Working Papers halshs-01324046, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01324046
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01324046
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cohen, Michele & Jaffray, Jean-Yves, 1980. "Rational Behavior under Complete Ignorance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1281-1299, July.
    2. V. Danilov & A. Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2010. "Expected utility theory under non-classical uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 25-47, February.
    3. Paolo Ghirardato, 2002. "Revisiting Savage in a conditional world," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 20(1), pages 83-92.
    4. George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10534.
    5. David S. Ahn & Haluk Ergin, 2010. "Framing Contingencies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 655-695, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky & Adrian Calmettes, 2019. ""Phishing For (quantum-like) Phools" Theory and experimental evidence," Working Papers halshs-02146862, HAL.
    2. Danilov, V.I. & Lambert-Mogiliansky, A., 2018. "Targeting in quantum persuasion problem," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 142-149.
    3. Vladimir Ivanovitch Danilov & Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky, 2017. "Preparing a (quantum) belief system," Working Papers halshs-01542068, HAL.
    4. Khrennikova, Polina & Patra, Sudip, 2019. "Asset trading under non-classical ambiguity and heterogeneous beliefs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 562-577.
    5. Danilov, V., 2016. "Utility Theory of General Lotteries," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 12-29.

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