IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-03318133.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Costos y beneficios de la carbono-neutralidad en Perú: Una evaluación robusta

Author

Listed:
  • Jairo Quirós-Tortós

    (UCR - Universidad de Costa Rica)

  • Guido Godínez- Zamora

    (UCR - Universidad de Costa Rica)

  • Daniel Gerardo de La Torre Ugarte

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

  • Carlos Heros
  • Juan Lazo Lazo

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

  • Elías Ruiz

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Berioska Quispe

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Daniella Diez Canseco
  • Freddy Garro

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Jimena Mora

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Lorenzo Eguren

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Milagros Sandoval

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Silke Campos

    (Ministerio de Ambiente del Perú)

  • Micol Salmeri

    (2050 Pathways Platform)

  • Richard Baron

    (2050 Pathways Platform)

  • Jaime Fernandez-Baca

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

  • Ana Saori Iju Fukushima

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

  • Valentina Saavedra

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

  • Adrien Vogt-Schilb

    (Banco Interamericano de Desarollo)

Abstract

Cumplir con las metas del Acuerdo de Paris requiere que todos los países lleguen a cero emisiones netas de carbono alrededor de 2050. Este estudio evalúa los costos y beneficios de distintas rutas de descarbonización en los sectores de agricultura, silvicultura y otros usos de la tierra; transporte; energía; residuos; y procesos industriales en Perú. En sus páginas demuestra que es posible lograr cero emisiones netas de carbono para 2050, mediante transformaciones sectoriales como generación de electricidad a base de energía renovable, electrificación de la flota vehicular y de los usos de la energía, eficiencia energética, reducción de la deforestación, mejores prácticas agrícolas y ganaderas, cambios en las dietas, y mejoras en el manejo de residuos y en los procesos industriales. Estas transformaciones brindan un beneficio neto de US$ 140.000 millones, gracias a ahorros operativos (incluidos ahorros de energía), mejoras en la productividad e ingresos por servicios ecosistémicos, y favorecen la salud, entre otros beneficios. Además, el estudio evalúa 1.000 posibles rutas de descarbonización adicionales para analizar el efecto de 201 factores de incertidumbre sobre emisiones, costos y beneficios, utilizando el método de toma de decisiones robusta. Las transformaciones sectoriales modeladas traen beneficios netos de entre US$ 20.000 millones y US$ 391.000 millones y permiten reducir las emisiones entre 260 MtCO2e y 520 MtCO2e para 2050. Estos resultados sustentan la actualización de la Estrategia Nacional ante el Cambio climático del Gobierno del Perú y sus políticas de reactivación económica posteriores a la pandemia.

Suggested Citation

  • Jairo Quirós-Tortós & Guido Godínez- Zamora & Daniel Gerardo de La Torre Ugarte & Carlos Heros & Juan Lazo Lazo & Elías Ruiz & Berioska Quispe & Daniella Diez Canseco & Freddy Garro & Jimena Mora & Lo, 2021. "Costos y beneficios de la carbono-neutralidad en Perú: Una evaluación robusta," Post-Print halshs-03318133, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03318133
    DOI: 10.18235/0003286
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03318133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03318133/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18235/0003286?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=66266 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mr. David Coady & Ian W.H. Parry & Nghia-Piotr Le & Baoping Shang, 2019. "Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2019/089, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Henri Waisman & Christine Bataille & Harald Winkler & Frank Jotzo & Priyadarshi Shukla & Michel Colombier & Daniel Buira & Patrick Criqui & Manfred Fischedick & Mikiko Kainuma & Emilio La Rovere & Ste, 2019. "A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies," Post-Print hal-02079339, HAL.
    4. Aimée Aguilar Jaber & Brilé Anderson & Daniel Nachtigall & Fatoumata Ngom, 2020. "Long-term low emissions development strategies: Cross-country experience," OECD Environment Working Papers 160, OECD Publishing.
    5. Robert Lempert, 2013. "Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 627-646, April.
    6. repec:idb:brikps:80199 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malerba, Daniele, 2022. "Just transitions: A review of how to decarbonise energy systems while addressing poverty and inequality reduction," IDOS Discussion Papers 6/2022, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    2. Argueyrolles, Robin & Delzeit, Ruth, 2022. "The interconnections between Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and biofuels," Conference papers 333492, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Syed Hasan & Odmaa Narantungalag, & Martin Berka, 2022. "The intended and unintended consequences of large electricity subsidies: evidence from Mongolia," Discussion Papers 2202, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    4. Simon Dikau & Nick Robins & Matthias Täger, 2019. "Building a sustainable financial system: the state of practice and future priorities," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue NOV.
    5. Joseph E. Aldy & Robert N. Stavins, 2021. "Rolling The Dice In The Corridors Of Power: William Nordhaus’S Impacts On Climate Change Policy," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert Mendelsohn (ed.), CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS Commemoration of Nobel Prize for William Nordhaus, chapter 1, pages 1-18, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Simon Dikau & Nick Robins & Matthias Täger, 2019. "Building a sustainable financial system: the state of practice and future priorities," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    7. Abdul Tariq & Robert Jay Lempert & John Riverson & Marla Schwartz & Neil Berg, 2017. "A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 625-639, October.
    8. Trutnevyte, Evelina & McDowall, Will & Tomei, Julia & Keppo, Ilkka, 2016. "Energy scenario choices: Insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 326-337.
    9. Roth, Jonathan & Martin, Amory & Miller, Clayton & Jain, Rishee K., 2020. "SynCity: Using open data to create a synthetic city of hourly building energy estimates by integrating data-driven and physics-based methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    10. Lempert Robert J., 2014. "Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 487-514, December.
    11. de Bruin, Kelly & Monaghan, Eoin & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2019. "The impacts of removing fossil fuel subsidies and increasing carbon tax in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS98, June.
    12. Mr. Younes Zouhar & Jon Jellema & Nora Lustig & Mohamed Trabelsi, 2021. "Public Expenditure and Inclusive Growth - A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2021/083, International Monetary Fund.
    13. S. Vögele & K. Govorukha & P. Mayer & I. Rhoden & D. Rübbelke & W. Kuckshinrichs, 2023. "Effects of a coal phase-out in Europe on reaching the UN Sustainable Development Goals," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 879-916, January.
    14. Sijbren Cnossen, 2020. "Excise Taxation for Domestic Resource Mobilization," CESifo Working Paper Series 8442, CESifo.
    15. Robert W. Hahn & Robert D. Metcalfe, 2021. "Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1658-1688, May.
    16. Semmler, Willi & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Minooei Fard, Behnaz & Braga, Joao Paulo, 2022. "Limit pricing and entry game of renewable energy firms into the energy sector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 179-190.
    17. Andrea Molocchi, 2021. "Circular Economy and Environmental Sustainability: A Policy Coherence Analysis of Current Italian Subsidies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-38, July.
    18. Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 373-379, April.
    19. Xexakis, Georgios & Hansmann, Ralph & Volken, Sandra P. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2020. "Models on the wrong track: Model-based electricity supply scenarios in Switzerland are not aligned with the perspectives of energy experts and the public," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Christopher G. F. Bataille, 2020. "Physical and policy pathways to net‐zero emissions industry," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03318133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.