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Study on the impacts of Shanghai crude oil futures on global oil market and oil industry based on VECM and DAG models

Author

Listed:
  • Qi Zhang

    (China University of Petroleum)

  • Peng Di

    (China University of Petroleum, IFP School)

  • Arash Farnoosh

    (IFP School)

Abstract

In the present study, the daily settlement data of Shanghai crude oil futures and world's major crude oils are selected. The role of Shanghai crude oil futures is studied regarding its pricing power and hedging risk. The dynamic relation analysis between Shanghai crude oil futures and international oil market is conducted by using rolling window causality test. The vector error correction model (VECM) and directed acyclic graph (DAG) are used to explore the long-term relationship and identify the contemporaneous causality structure respectively. Then Shanghai crude oil futures' impacts on other oil price fluctuations are analyzed by using variance decomposition method. The obtained analysis results show that the pricing power of Shanghai crude oil futures is limited compared with the international benchmark oil price, but it has begun to have a contemporaneous influence in the Asian oil market price transmission and better reflect oil supply and demand. Moreover, Shengli crude oil has stronger impact on the pricing mechanism after the listing of Shanghai crude oil futures. Furthermore, it also establishes an effective hedging tool for oil importers and refineries. Therefore, although the Shanghai crude oil futures is still in its initial development stage at present, it provides an important basis for becoming a regional benchmark in Asia and a useful instrument for energy market participants, influencing China's oil industry in import price and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Qi Zhang & Peng Di & Arash Farnoosh, 2021. "Study on the impacts of Shanghai crude oil futures on global oil market and oil industry based on VECM and DAG models," Post-Print hal-03151102, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03151102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120050
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-03151102
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hao-Lin Shao & Ying-Hui Shao & Yan-Hong Yang, 2021. "New insights into price drivers of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from quantile ARDL approach," Papers 2110.02693, arXiv.org.
    2. Hu, Genhua & Jiang, Haifeng, 2023. "Time-varying jumps in China crude oil futures market impacted by COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Yang, Weixin & Pan, Lingying & Ding, Qinyi, 2023. "Dynamic analysis of natural gas substitution for crude oil: Scenario simulation and quantitative evaluation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Li, Xuemei & Liu, Xiaoxing, 2023. "Functional classification and dynamic prediction of cumulative intraday returns in crude oil futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    5. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    6. Shao, Mingao & Hua, Yongjun, 2022. "Price discovery efficiency of China's crude oil futures: Evidence from the Shanghai crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The growth of oil futures in China: Evidence of market maturity through global crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Chen, Bin & Li, Yanlin & Yuan, Mengxue & Shen, Jun & Wang, Sha & Tong, Jianhui & Guo, Yun, 2022. "Study of the Co-pyrolysis characteristics of oil shale with wheat straw based on the hierarchical collection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    9. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Alexander Oskarovich Maslennikov & Stanislav Vyacheslavovich Zhukov, 2022. "Europe in World Natural Gas Market: International Transmission of European Price Shocks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 8-15, May.
    10. Dan Zhang & Arash Farnoosh & Zhengwei Ma, 2022. "Does the Launch of Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Stabilize the Spot Market ? A Financial Cycle Perspective," Post-Print hal-03910474, HAL.
    11. Qian Wang & Yu Wei & Yifeng Zhang & Yuntong Liu, 2023. "Evaluating the Safe-Haven Abilities of Bitcoin and Gold for Crude Oil Market: Evidence During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(3), pages 391-432, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shanghai crude oil futures; price transmission; vector error correction model; directed acyclic graph; hedging risk;
    All these keywords.

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