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Proportional loss functions for debris flow events

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Rheinberger

    (LERNA - Economie des Ressources Naturelles - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)

  • Hans E. Romang

    (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss)

  • Michael Bründl

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL)

Abstract

Quantitative risk assessments of debris flows and other hydrogeological hazards require the analyst to predict damage potentials. A common way to do so is by use of proportional loss functions. In this paper, we analyze a uniquely rich dataset of 132 buildings that were damaged in one of five large debris flow events in Switzerland. Using the double generalized linear model, we estimate proportional loss functions thatmay be used for various prediction purposes including hazard mapping, landscape planning, and insurance pricing. Unlike earlier analyses, we control for confounding effects of building characteristics, site specifics, and process intensities as well as for overdispersion in the data. Our results suggest that process intensity parameters are the most meaningful predictors of proportional loss sizes. Cross-validation tests suggest that the mean absolute prediction errors of our models are in the range of 11 %, underpinning the accurateness of the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Rheinberger & Hans E. Romang & Michael Bründl, 2013. "Proportional loss functions for debris flow events," Post-Print hal-02643847, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02643847
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-2147-2013
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02643847
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Jong,Piet & Heller,Gillian Z., 2008. "Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879149.
    2. Dieter Rickenmann, 1999. "Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 19(1), pages 47-77, January.
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    4. Paul Raschky & Hannelore Weck-Hannemann, 2007. "Charity hazard - A real hazard to natural disaster insurance," Working Papers 2007-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    5. Sergio Sepúlveda & Cristóbal Padilla, 2008. "Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills, Central Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 201-215, November.
    6. M. Jakob & D. Stein & M. Ulmi, 2012. "Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 241-261, January.
    7. Jaime Bonachea & Juan Remondo & José Ramón Díaz De Terán & Alberto González‐Díez & Antonio Cendrero, 2009. "Landslide Risk Models for Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(11), pages 1629-1643, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aditi Singh & D. P. Kanungo & Shilpa Pal, 2019. "Physical vulnerability assessment of buildings exposed to landslides in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 753-790, March.

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