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Scenario Planning for Cities using Cellular Automata Models: A Case Study

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  • Caroline Bayr

    (Joanneum Research, Graz)

  • Miriam Steurer

    ()
    (Karl-Franzens University of Graz)

  • Rose-Gerd Koboltschnig

    (Joanneum Research, Graz)

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    Abstract

    We show how small to medium sized cities can make use of the cellular automata (CA) approach to integrate land use data and other GIS based data with inter-active scenario evaluation. In our model development we put particular focus on the interdependency between transport infrastructure supply and population density. Due to their close connection with the field of Geography most CA models concentrate on land use changes only. How the CA model can be used in practice by city planners is generally not discussed. Also, population changes in cells and the associated pressures on infrastructure networks are generally not included. In this paper we first build and use a CA model to illustrate land use change. We then apply OLS regression as well as linear optimization techniques to allocate population growth into cells in a way that observes the stylized facts established by the standard Urban Economics literature (population growth in a particular cell is dependent on its distance to the city centre as well as its quality with respect to public transport ease). Third we show applications that illustrate how a CA model can be used for scenario planning in cities. Our CA model can be used to generate maps of future land use patterns for different potential future scenarios. It provides a fast and very economical way to compare alternative strategic plans and development rules for a small to medium sized city. For our sample town, Austria’s second largest city Graz, we develop five different long-term scenarios. The model output for each scenario can then be used as input for infrastructure planning procedures. We illustrate some examples: ex-ante transport infrastructure evaluation, graphic representation of the spatially differentiated structure of the population, evaluation of existing zoning rules, evaluation of infrastructure capacities (e.g. sewage system).

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Graz, Department of Economics in its series Graz Economics Papers with number 2013-06.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:grz:wpaper:2013-06

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    Web page: http://volkswirtschaftslehre.uni-graz.at/
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    References

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    1. Geoffrey Caruso & Dominique Peeters & Jean Cavailhes & Mark Rounsevell, 2007. "Spatial configuration in a periurban city. A cellular automata-based microeconomic model," Working Papers 25364, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
    2. C J Webster & F Wu, 1999. "Regulation, land-use mix, and urban performance. Part 1: theory," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(8), pages 1433-1442, August.
    3. C J Webster & F Wu, 1999. "Regulation, land-use mix, and urban performance. Part 2: simulation," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(9), pages 1529-1545, September.
    4. R White & G Engelen, 1997. "Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic regional modelling," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(2), pages 235-246, March.
    5. M Batty & Y Xie, 1994. "From cells to cities," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 21(7), pages s31-s48.
    6. R White & G Engelen & I Uljee, 1997. "The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(3), pages 323-343, May.
    7. H Couclelis, 1985. "Cellular worlds: a framework for modeling micro - macro dynamics," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 17(5), pages 585-596, May.
    8. R White & G Engelen, 1993. "Cellular automata and fractal urban form: a cellular modelling approach to the evolution of urban land-use patterns," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 25(8), pages 1175-1199, August.
    9. Chris Hand, 2005. "Simple Cellular Automata on a Spreadsheet," Computers in Higher Education Economics Review, Economics Network, University of Bristol, vol. 17(1), pages 9-13.
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