IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fth/nystfi/98-076.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data

Author

Listed:
  • Joel Hasbrouck

Abstract

Motivated by economic models of sequential trade, empirical analyses of market dynamics in the U.S. equities market frequently estimate liquidity from regressions of price changes on transaction volumes, where the latter are signed (positive for buyer-initiated trades; negative for seller-initiated trades). This paper estimates these specification for transaction data from pit trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. To deal with the absence of timely bid and ask quotes (generally used to sign trades in the equity market studies); this paper proposes new techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Hasbrouck, 1998. "Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-076, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:98-076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/fin/workpapers/wpa98076.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Dagfinn Rime, 2019. "Microstructure of foreign exchange markets," Working Paper 2019/6, Norges Bank.
    2. Dutta, Prajit K & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. "Competition and Collusion in Dealer Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 245-276, March.
    3. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 409-431, August.
    4. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    5. Schwert, G. William, 1997. "Symposium on market microstructure: Focus on Nasdaq," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-8, July.
    6. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    7. Kandel, Eugene & Marx, Leslie M., 1997. "Nasdaq market structure and spread patterns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 61-89, July.
    8. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    9. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    10. Christie, William G & Harris, Jeffrey H & Schultz, Paul H, 1994. "Why Did NASDAQ Market Makers Stop Avoiding Odd-Eighth Quotes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1841-1860, December.
    11. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1988. "Trades, quotes, inventories, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, December.
    12. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1996. "Order characteristics and stock price evolution An application to program trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 129-149, May.
    13. Shephard, Neil, 1993. "Fitting Nonlinear Time-Series Models with Applications to Stochastic Variance Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 135-152, Suppl. De.
    14. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, "undated". "Filtering via simulation: auxiliary particle filters," Economics Papers 1997-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    16. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    17. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-975.
    18. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Estimation of Stock Price Variances and Serial Covariances from Discrete Observations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 291-306, September.
    19. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    20. Aurora Manrique & Neil Shephard, 1998. "Simulation-based likelihood inference for limited dependent processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 174-202.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oehler, Andreas & Häcker, Mirko, 2003. "Kurseinfluss mittlerer und großer Transaktionen am deutschen Aktienmarkt," Discussion Papers 20, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    2. Frino, Alex & Jarnecic, Elvis, 2000. "An empirical analysis of the supply of liquidity by locals in futures markets: Evidence from the Sydney Futures Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 443-456, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1999. "Security bid/ask dynamics with discreteness and clustering: Simple strategies for modeling and estimation1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, February.
    2. Joel Hasbrouck, 1998. "Security Bid/Ask Dynamics with Discreteness and Clustering: Simple Strategies for Modeling and Estimation," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-042, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    3. Zhang, Michael Yuanjie & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2008. "Determinants of bid and ask quotes and implications for the cost of trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 656-678, September.
    4. Biais, Bruno & Glosten, Larry & Spatt, Chester, 2005. "Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 217-264, May.
    5. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    6. Richard K. Lyons, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 183-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August.
    8. Gerhard, Frank & Hess, Dieter & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 1998. "What a Difference a Day Makes: On the Common Market Microstructure of Trading Days," CoFE Discussion Papers 98/01, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    9. Pascual, Roberto & Escribano, Álvaro & Tapia, Mikel, 1999. "How does liquidity behave? A multidimensional analysis of NYSE stocks," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 6433, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    10. Kedia, Simi & Zhou, Xing, 2011. "Local market makers, liquidity and market quality," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 540-567, November.
    11. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    12. Koopman, S.J.M. & Lai, H.N., 1998. "Modelling bid-ask spreads in competitive dealership markets," Other publications TiSEM 7a193911-dbf2-4831-ac8d-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Strickland, Chris M. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Martin, Gael M., 2006. "Bayesian analysis of the stochastic conditional duration model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2247-2267, May.
    14. Locke, Peter R. & Sarajoti, Pattarake, 2004. "Aggressive dealer pricing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 559-573, September.
    15. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    16. Yu, Jun & Yang, Zhenlin & Zhang, Xibin, 2006. "A class of nonlinear stochastic volatility models and its implications for pricing currency options," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2218-2231, December.
    17. Pascual, Roberto & Escribano, Álvaro & Tapia, Mikel, 2000. "Adverse selection costs, trading activity and liquidity in the NYSE: an empirical analysis in a dynamic context," UC3M Working papers. Economics 7276, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    18. Múnera, Daimer J. & Agudelo, Diego A., 2022. "Who moved my liquidity? Liquidity evaporation in emerging markets in periods of financial uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Huang, Roger D. & Stoll, Hans R., 1996. "Dealer versus auction markets: A paired comparison of execution costs on NASDAQ and the NYSE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 313-357, July.
    20. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:98-076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fdnyuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.