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Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data

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  • Joel Hasbrouck
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    Abstract

    Motivated by economic models of sequential trade, empirical analyses of market dynamics in the U.S. equities market frequently estimate liquidity from regressions of price changes on transaction volumes, where the latter are signed (positive for buyer-initiated trades; negative for seller-initiated trades). This paper estimates these specification for transaction data from pit trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. To deal with the absence of timely bid and ask quotes (generally used to sign trades in the equity market studies); this paper proposes new techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 98-076.

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    Date of creation: 14 Aug 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:98-076

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    Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
    Phone: (212) 998-0100
    Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
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    1. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Estimation of Stock Price Variances and Serial Covariances from Discrete Observations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 291-306, September.
    2. Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, . "Filtering via simulation: auxiliary particle filters," Economics Papers 1997-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1996. "Order characteristics and stock price evolution An application to program trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 129-149, May.
    5. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-75.
    6. Roll, Richard, 1984. " A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-39, September.
    7. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    8. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    10. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
    11. Dutta, Prajit K & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. " Competition and Collusion in Dealer Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 245-76, March.
    12. Aurora Manrique & Neil Shephard, 1998. "Simulation-based likelihood inference for limited dependent processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C174-C202.
    13. Christie, William G & Harris, Jeffrey H & Schultz, Paul H, 1994. " Why Did NASDAQ Market Makers Stop Avoiding Odd-Eighth Quotes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1841-60, December.
    14. Schwert, G. William, 1997. "Symposium on market microstructure: Focus on Nasdaq," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-8, July.
    15. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 24 Oct 1994.
    17. Shephard, Neil, 1993. "Fitting Nonlinear Time-Series Models with Applications to Stochastic Variance Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S135-52, Suppl. De.
    18. Kandel, Eugene & Marx, Leslie M., 1997. "Nasdaq market structure and spread patterns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 61-89, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Oehler, Andreas & Häcker, Mirko, 2003. "Kurseinfluss mittlerer und großer Transaktionen am deutschen Aktienmarkt," Discussion Papers 20, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    2. Frino, Alex & Jarnecic, Elvis, 2000. "An empirical analysis of the supply of liquidity by locals in futures markets: Evidence from the Sydney Futures Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 443-456, July.

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