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Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa: a spatial equilibrium model analysis

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You, Liangzhi
Diao, Xinshen

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Abstract

"In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect—consumers' reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices—is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa.." Authors' Abstract

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Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series DSGD discussion papers with number 40.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:dsgddp:40

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Keywords: Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Small farmers; Spatial analysis (Statistics);

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  1. Abdulai, Awudu & Diao, Xinshen & Johnson, Michael, 2005. "Achieving regional growth dynamics in African agriculture," DSGD discussion papers 17, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Fan, Shenggen & Chan-Kang, Connie & Mukherjee, Anit, 2005. "Rural and urban dynamics and poverty: Evidence from China and India," FCND discussion papers 196, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Jansen, Hans G.P. & Siegel, Paul B. & Pichón, Francisco, 2005. "Identifying the drivers of sustainable rural growth and poverty reduction in Honduras," DSGD discussion papers 19, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  4. Tewodaj Mogues, 2005. "Shocks, Livestock Asset Dynamics, and Social Capital in Ethiopia," Development and Comp Systems 0512006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael Carter & Peter Little & Tewodaj Mogues & Workneh Negatu, 2005. "Shocks, Sensitivity and Resilience: Tracking the Economic Impacts of Environmental Disaster on Assets in Ethiopia and Honduras," Development and Comp Systems 0511029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Birner, Regina & Davis, Kristin & Pender, John & Nkonya, Ephraim & Anandajayasekeram, Pooniah & Ekboir, Javier & Mbabu, Adiel & Spielman, David & Horna, Daniela & Benin, Samuel & Cohen, Marc J., 2006. "From "best practice" to "best fit": a framework for designing and analyzing pluralistic agricultural advisory services worldwide," EPTD discussion papers 05, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Gulati, Ashok & Fan, Shenggen & Dalafi, Sara, 2005. "The dragon and the elephant," MTID discussion papers 87, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Fan, Shenggen & Nyange, David & Rao, Neetha, 2005. "Public investment and poverty reduction in Tanzania," DSGD discussion papers 18, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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