A MEM-based Analysis of Volatility Spillovers in East Asian Financial Markets
Abstract
Transmission mechanisms in financial markets reflect the degree of integration of capital markets, as well as the relative importance of real economies. Market volatility has components which may behave differently across quiet and turbulent periods, but appear to behave in similar ways from market to market. In this paper we suggest a Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) approach to study volatility spillovers among a set of markets, using as a proxy, the market daily range. We model the dynamics of the expected volatility of one market including interactions with the past daily ranges of other markets, building a fully interdependent model. We analyze eight East Asian markets in the period 1995-2006, devoting particular attention to the treatment of the 1997-1998 turbulence period. We find no evidence of independent markets while several interdependence relationships can be stressed. Hong Kong turns out to be the most important market while Taiwan seems to have suffered quite limited effects from the crisis. Impulse response functions and multiperiod forecast profiles are developed and suggest a build-up in the spillover effects.Download Info
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Paper provided by Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti" in its series Econometrics Working Papers Archive with number wp2008_09.Length: 21
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2008_09
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Related research
Keywords: Multiplicative Error Model; volatility spillovers; impulse response functions; East Asian Markets;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Vít Bubák & Evžen Kocenda & Filip Zikes, 2010.
"Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3063, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
- Evzen Kocenda & Vit Bubak & Filip Zikes, 2011. "Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1020, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2011. "Risk Sharing and Financial Contagion in Asia: An Asset Price Perspective," IMF Working Papers 11/242, International Monetary Fund.
- John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009.
"Global and Regional Spillovers in Emerging Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean Analysis,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
942, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
- John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009. "Global and Regional Spillovers in Emerging Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH-in-mean Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2794, CESifo Group Munich.
- Elena Andreou & Maria Matsi & Andreas Savvides, 2013. "Stock and Foreign Exchange Market Linkages in Emerging Economies," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2013, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
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