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Regulatory solvency prediction in property-liability insurance: risk-based capital, audit ratios, and cash flow simulation

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  • J. David Cummins
  • Martin F. Grace
  • Richard D. Phillips

Abstract

This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach--cash flow simulation. Specifically, we compare the risk-based capital (RBC) system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in 1994, the FAST (Financial Analysis and Surveillance Tracking) audit ratio system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio-based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. We find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, we find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 98-20.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98-20

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Keywords: Insurance industry;

References

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  1. J. David Cummins & Scott E. Harrington & Robert Klein, 1995. "nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-06, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Cummins, J. David & Harrington, Scott E. & Klein, Robert, 1995. "Insolvency experience, risk-based capital, and prompt corrective action in property-liability insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 511-527, June.
  3. Lamm-Tennant, Joan & Starks, Laura T, 1993. "Stock versus Mutual Ownership Structures: The Risk Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 29-46, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Udaibir S. Das & Richard Podpiera & Nigel Davies, 2003. "Insurance and Issues in Financial Soundness," IMF Working Papers 03/138, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Steven Pottier & David Sommer, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Public and Private Sector Summary Risk Measures in Predicting Insurer Insolvencies," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 101-116, February.
  3. J. Cummins & Gregory Nini, 2002. "Optimal Capital Utilization by Financial Firms: Evidence from the Property-Liability Insurance Industry," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-53, February.
  4. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2011. "The Regulatory Effect of Risk-Based Capital in Property-Liability Insurance," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-20, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  5. Robert W. Klein, 2012. "The Modernization of Insurance Company Solvency Regulation in the U.S.: Issues and Implications," NFI Policy Briefs 2012-PB-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  6. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2011. "The Role of RBC, Hurricane Exposure, Bond Portfolio Duration, and Macroeconomic and Industry-wide Factors in Property-Liability Insolvency Prediction," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-17, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  7. Benjamin Lorent, 2010. "Insurance Solvency Regulation: Regulatory Approaches Compared," Working Papers CEB 10-041, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  8. Therese M. Vaughan, 2008. "The Implications of Prompt Corrective Action for Insurance Firms," NFI Policy Briefs 2008-PB-02, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  9. P. Picard, 2000. "Les nouveaux enjeux de la régulation des marchés d'assurance," THEMA Working Papers 2000-53, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.

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  1. Deterministische Simulationsmodelle als Insolvenzprognoseverfahren in Wikipedia German ne '')

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