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Asset market hangovers and economic growth: U.S. housing markets

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Author Info
Matthew Higgins
Carol Osler

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Abstract

This paper presents evidence that speculative bubbles can have sizeable effects on house prices, and on housing investment. We infer that deviations of asset prices from fundamental values may have serious consequences for real activity, and explore some policy implications. The analysis relies on a panel of U.S. state-level data covering 1973-1996.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9801.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9801

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Keywords: Housing Prices Saving and investment Economic development

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
  4. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Econometric Studies of Investment Behavior: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1111-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James M. Poterba, 1992. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy and Demography," NBER Reprints 1706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Garry J. Schinasi, 1994. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 94/6, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Garry J. Schinasi, 1994. "Asset Prices, Financial Liberalization, and the Process of Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 94/153, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 151-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "A note on the Anderson-Hsiao estimator for panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 337-341, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1992. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-23, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1993. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-56, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  17. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Ben S. Bernanke, 1992. "The bank credit crunch," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pages 463-469.
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Cited by:
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  1. Lynn Elaine Browne, 2000. "National and regional housing patterns," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 31-57. [Downloadable!]
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