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Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico

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Author Info
John Clark
Elizabeth Berko
Abstract

We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (1987) or correlations with other factors causing returns, price pressures, or positive feedback strategies by foreign investors, and conclude that the available evidence is consistent with the base-broadening hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9635.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9635

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Keywords: Capital movements Investments Foreign Mexico

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  1. Wen-Hsiu Kuo & Ching-Chung Lin & Liu-Hsiang Hsu, 2007. "The impact of foreign trading information on emerging futures markets: a study of Taiwan's unique data set," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(10), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hyuk Choe & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 1998. "Do Foreign Investors Destabilize Stock Markets? The Korean Experience in 1997," NBER Working Papers 6661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I," NBER Working Papers 6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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