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The IT revolution and the unsecured credit market

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  • Juan M. Sanchez

Abstract

Consumer bankruptcies rose sharply over the last 20 years in the U.S. economy. During the same period, there was impressive technological progress in the information sector (the IT revolution). At the same time, pricing of unsecured debt changed dramatically. The dispersion of interest rates rose substantially. More importantly, interest rates varied systematically with the borrowers' characteristics in 2004 but not in 1983. This suggests that changes in the information that lenders use to price debt may be behind changes in the unsecured credit market. A model of unsecured borrowing with asymmetric information is developed to analyze this hypothesis. The effect of changes in the cost of information on borrowing and bankruptcy is explained with the help of a two-period version of the model. A calibrated model is used to study the implications of the IT revolution further. Quantitative exercises show that information costs have a significant effect on the bankruptcy rate. Additionally, a drop in information costs generates other changes (e.g. the projection of the borrowers' characteristics on interest rates) similar to what has occurred over the last 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan M. Sanchez, 2010. "The IT revolution and the unsecured credit market," Working Papers 2010-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2010-022
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Song Han & Benjamin J. Keys & Geng Li, 2015. "Information, Contract Design, and Unsecured Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Mailings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-103, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Lukasz A. Drozd & Ricardo Serrano-Padial, 2013. "Modeling the credit card revolution: the role of debt collection and informal bankruptcy," Working Papers 13-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Jim MacGee & Igor Livshits & Michele Tertilt, 2008. "Costly Contracts and Consumer Credit," 2008 Meeting Papers 385, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Hülya Eraslan & Gizem Koşar & Wenli Li & Pierre‐Daniel Sarte, 2017. "An Anatomy Of U.S. Personal Bankruptcy Under Chapter 13," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 671-702, August.
    6. Borghan Nezami Narajabad, 2012. "Information Technology and the Rise of Household Bankruptcy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 526-550, October.
    7. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    8. Daphne Chen & Jake Zhao, 2017. "The Impact of Personal Bankruptcy on Labor Supply Decisions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 40-61, October.
    9. Igor Livshits, 2015. "Recent Developments In Consumer Credit And Default Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 594-613, September.
    10. Athreya, Kartik B., 2014. "Big Ideas in Macroeconomics: A Nontechnical View," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262019736, December.
    11. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo & Javier Bianchi, 2012. "Sovereign defaults and optimal reserves management," 2012 Meeting Papers 1125, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    Keywords

    Information technology; Consumer credit;

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