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Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession

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Abstract

Using data from 14 government sources, we develop comprehensive estimates of U.S. economic activity by sector, legal form of organization, and firm size to characterize how four government direct lending programs—the Paycheck Protection Program, the Main Street Lending Program, the Corporate Credit Facilities, and the Municipal Lending Facilities—relate to these classes of economic activity in the United States. The classes targeted by these programs are vast—accounting for 97 percent of total U.S. employment—though entityspecific financial criteria limit coverage within specific programs. These programs notionally cover a far larger universe than what was targeted by analogous Great Recession-era lending policies. We relate our estimates to those from timely alternative data sources, which do not typically cover the majority of the economic universe.

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  • Ryan A. Decker & Robert J. Kurtzman & Byron F. Lutz & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2020. "Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-099r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 23 Jun 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-99
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.099r1
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    1. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2020. "How New Fed Corporate Bond Programs Dampened the Financial Accelerator in the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 2029, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 335-390.
    3. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matthew Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 239-268;316.
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    5. Emin Dinlersoz & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Henry Hyatt & Veronika Penciakova, 2018. "Leverage over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness," NBER Working Papers 25226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger & Kristin Sandusky & James R. Spletzer, 2017. "Measuring the Gig Economy: Current Knowledge and Open Issues," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 257-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Richard A. Dunn & Brent Hueth, 2017. "Food and Agricultural Industries: Opportunities for Improving Measurement and Reporting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(2), pages 510-523.
    8. Autor, David & Cho, David & Crane, Leland D. & Goldar, Mita & Lutz, Byron & Montes, Joshua & Peterman, William B. & Ratner, David & Villar, Daniel & Yildirmaz, Ahu, 2022. "An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    9. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2018. "Leverage over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness," CEPR Discussion Papers 13337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke, 2018. "The Real Effects of Disrupted Credit: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 251-342.
    11. repec:aei:rpaper:1008582843 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Illenin O. Kondo & Logan T. Lewis & Andrea Stella, 2018. "On the U.S. Firm and Establishment Size Distributions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua Montes & William B. Peterman & David Ratner & Daniel Villar & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did It Go There?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 55-80, Spring.
    3. Autor, David & Cho, David & Crane, Leland D. & Goldar, Mita & Lutz, Byron & Montes, Joshua & Peterman, William B. & Ratner, David & Villar, Daniel & Yildirmaz, Ahu, 2022. "An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment; Activity estimates; Direct lending programs; Paycheck Protection Program; PPP; Main Street; Corporate Credit Facilities; Alternative data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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