IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/29972.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata

Author

Listed:
  • David Autor
  • David Cho
  • Leland D. Crane
  • Mita Goldar
  • Byron Lutz
  • Joshua K. Montes
  • William B. Peterman
  • David D. Ratner
  • Daniel Villar Vallenas
  • Ahu Yildirmaz

Abstract

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a principal element of the fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic, aimed to assist small businesses to maintain employment and wages during the crisis. We use high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP--one of the world’s largest payroll processing firms--to estimate the causal effect of the PPP on the evolution of employment at PPP-eligible firms relative to PPP-ineligible firms, where eligibility is determined by industry-specific firm-size cutoffs. We estimate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent to 5 percent at its peak in mid-2020, with this effect waning to 0 to 3 percent throughout the remainder of the year. Employers retained an estimated additional 3.6 million jobs due to the PPP as of mid-May 2020, and 1.4 million jobs at the end of 2020. The implied cost per year of employment retained was $169,000 to $258,000, equal to 3.4 to 5.2 times median earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua K. Montes & William B. Peterman & David D. Ratner & Daniel Villar Vallenas & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata," NBER Working Papers 29972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29972
    Note: LS ME PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w29972.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Falk Bräuning & Teodora Paligorova, 2021. "Uptake of the Main Street Lending Program," FEDS Notes 2021-04-16-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. John Grigsby & Erik Hurst & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2021. "Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 428-471, February.
    3. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    4. Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 335-390.
    5. Cynthia L. Doniger & Benjamin S. Kay, 2021. "Ten Days Late and Billions of Dollars Short: The Employment Effects of Delays in Paycheck Protection Program Financing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Carlos Dobkin & Amy Finkelstein & Raymond Kluender & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 308-352, February.
    7. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Feng Lin & Jesse Rothstein & Matthew Unrath, 2020. "Measuring the Labor Market at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 239-268;316.
    8. Lei Li & Philip Strahan, 2020. "Who Supplies PPP Loans (And Does it Matter)? Banks, Relationships and the COVID Crisis," NBER Working Papers 28286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua Montes & William B. Peterman & David Ratner & Daniel Villar & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did It Go There?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 55-80, Spring.
    10. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoe Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(30), pages 17656-17666, July.
    11. Kurmann, André & Lalé, Etienne & Ta, Lien, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Dynamics and Employment: Real-time Estimates With Homebase Data," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-15, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    12. Ryan A. Decker & Robert J. Kurtzman & Byron F. Lutz & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2021. "Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 267-271, May.
    13. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & John Grigsby & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Erik Hurst & Christopher Johann Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession," Working Papers 2020-58_Revision, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    14. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher J. Kurz & Tyler Radler, 2018. "Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. repec:aei:rpaper:1008582843 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 335-390.
    2. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Caroline Fyfe & Dave Maré & Phoebe Taptiklis, 2023. "COVID-19 Wage Subsidy: Outcome evaluation - Value for Money," Working Papers 23_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    4. Luca Casolaro & Francesco Suppressa, 2023. "Credit during the pandemics: the case of Tuscany," Discussion Papers 2023/296, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Mary-Frances Styczynski, 2021. "The Effect of the PPPLF on PPP Lending by Commercial Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Timothy Köhler & Haroon Bhorat & Robert Hill, 2023. "The effect of wage subsidies on job retention in a developing country: Evidence from South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Ryan A. Decker & Robert J. Kurtzman & Byron F. Lutz & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2021. "Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 267-271, May.
    8. Higashi, Yudai & Sasaki, Masaru, 2023. "Did COVID-19 Deteriorate Mismatch in the Japanese Labor Market?," IZA Discussion Papers 15917, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Anbil, Sriya & Carlson, Mark & Styczynski, Mary-Frances, 2023. "The effect of the Federal Reserve’s lending facility on PPP lending by commercial banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    10. Ana Claudia Sant'Anna & Kevin N. Kim & Iryna Demko, 2024. "Limits to capital: Assessing the role of race on the Paycheck Protection Program for African American farmers in America," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(1), pages 217-233, March.
    11. Aaron J. Staples & Thomas P. Krumel, 2023. "The Paycheck Protection Program and small business performance: Evidence from craft breweries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 931-956, October.
    12. Hernandez, Carlos Ospino & Rigolini, Jamele & Coll-Black, Sarah & Oviedo, Ana Maria, 2023. "Protecting Who? Optimal Social Protection Responses to Shocks with Limited Information," IZA Policy Papers 205, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Bertoni, Fabio & Colombo, Massimo G. & Quas, Anita, 2023. "The long-term effects of loan guarantees on SME performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Daniel G. Neely & Gregory D. Saxton & Paul A. Wong, 2023. "Nonprofit Organizations’ Financial Obligations and the Paycheck Protection Program," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4353-4361, July.
    15. Théo Nicolas & Stefano Ungaro & Éric Vansteenberghe, 2023. "Public-Guaranteed Loans, Bank Risk-Taking and Regulatory Capital Windfall [Prêts garantis par l'État, prise de risque bancaire et effet d'aubaine sur le capital réglementaire]," Débats économiques et financiers 41, Banque de France.
    16. Contreras, Salvador & Ghosh, Amit & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2023. "The effect of bank failures on small business loans and income inequality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Sariyer, Gorkem & Kahraman, Serpil & Sözen, Mert Erkan & Ataman, Mustafa Gokalp, 2023. "Fiscal responses to COVID-19 outbreak for healthy economies: Modelling with big data analytics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 191-198.
    18. Huixin Bi & Chaitri Gulati, 2021. "Fiscal Relief during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 106(no.2), pages 5-24, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua Montes & William B. Peterman & David Ratner & Daniel Villar & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did It Go There?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 55-80, Spring.
    3. Meghana Ayyagari & Yuxi Cheng & Ariel Weinberger, 2022. "Surviving Pandemics: The Role of Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9891, CESifo.
    4. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Mary-Frances Styczynski, 2021. "The Effect of the PPPLF on PPP Lending by Commercial Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Sabrina T. Howell & Theresa Kuchler & David Snitkof & Johannes Stroebel & Jun Wong, 2021. "Lender Automation and Racial Disparities in Credit Access," NBER Working Papers 29364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    7. Pavel Kapinos, 2021. "Paycheck Protection Program: County-Level Determinants and Effect on Unemployment," Working Papers 2105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Ströbel, Johannes & Howell, Sabrina & Kuchler, Theresa & Snitkof, David, 2021. "Racial Disparities in Access to Small Business Credit: Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," CEPR Discussion Papers 16623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Kapinos, Pavel, 2021. "Did the Paycheck Protection Program have negative side effects on small-business activity?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    11. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian M. & Scur, Daniela, 2023. "The effect of preserving job matches during a crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric Sims, 2024. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 483-504, March.
    13. Harasztosi, Péter & Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália & Revoltella, Debora & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 30-48.
    14. Gustavo Joaquim & J. Christina Wang, 2022. "What Do 25 Million Records of Small Businesses Say about the Effects of the PPP?," Working Papers 22-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. Meyer, Brent H. & Prescott, Brian & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 529-544.
    16. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2023. "Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    18. Staples, Aaron J. & Krumel, Thomas P. Jr., 2022. "The Paycheck Protection Program & Small Business Performance: Evidence from Craft Breweries," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322484, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    20. Lopez, Jose A. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Small business lending under the PPP and PPPLF programs," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.