Generational aspects of Medicare
AbstractThis paper examines the generational aspect of the current Medicare system and some stylized reforms. We find that the rates of return on Medicare for today's workers are higher than those for Social Security and that the Medicare system is shifting a greater share of the burden on future workers than is Social Security. Nonetheless, the rates of return on Medicare, using the Medicare Trustees assumptions, are still not that high--roughly 2 percent for today's youngest workers. But forecasting future Medicare expenditures is quite difficult. Under an alternative higher-cost baseline, which we consider plausible, rates of return for today's youngest workers will exceed 3 percent. Putting Medicare on a sustainable basis by raising the payroll tax or reducing benefits would greatly reduce the rate of return for today's workers. Under the Trustees assumptions, for example, the payroll tax would have to be increased by 2.0 percent of payroll to put the Medicare system in balance in perpetuity. This policy would reduce the rate of return on today's youngest workers to about 1.3 percent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2000-09.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2000-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2000-04-17 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-HEA-2000-04-17 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David M. Cutler & Louise Sheiner, 1998.
"Demographics and Medical Care Spending: Standard and Non-Standard Effects,"
NBER Working Papers
6866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David M. Cutler & Louise Sheiner, 1999. "Demographics and medical care spending: standard and non-standard effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Cutler, David, 2000. "Walking the Tightrope on Medicare Reform," Scholarly Articles 2640587, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- McClellan, Mark & Skinner, Jonathan, 2006.
"The incidence of Medicare,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 257-276, January.
- Rettenmaier, Andrew J. & Saving, Thomas R. (ed.), 2000. "Medicare Reform," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226710136, March.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Medicare from the Perspective of Generational Accounting," NBER Working Papers 6596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David M. Cutler, 2000. "Walking the Tightrope on Medicare Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 45-56, Spring.
- Tadashi Fukui & Yasushi Iwamoto, 2006.
"Policy Options for Financing the Future Health and Long-term Care Costs in Japan,"
CIRJE-F-432, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Tadashi Fukui & Yasushi Iwamoto, 2006. "Policy Options for Financing the Future Health and Long-Term Care Costs in Japan," NBER Working Papers 12427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Louise Sheiner, 2009. "Intergenerational aspects of health care," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Antoine Bommier & Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller & Stephane Zuber, 2004.
"Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090,"
NBER Working Papers
10969, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antoine Bommier & Ronald Lee & Tim Miller & Stéphane Zuber, 2010. "Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 1-26.
- Steven Pizer & Austin Frakt & Roger Feldman, 2009. "Nothing for something? Estimating cost and value for beneficiaries from recent medicare spending increases on HMO payments and drug benefits," International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 59-81, March.
- Paolo Pertile & Veronica Polin & Pietro Rizza & Marzia Romanelli, 2012. "Public finance consolidation and fairness across living generations: the case of Italy," Working Papers 04/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
- Livio Di Matteo, 2010. "The sustainability of public health expenditures: evidence from the Canadian federation," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 11(6), pages 569-584, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.