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Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies

Author

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  • Kuusi, Osmo

Abstract

In 1990s there has been a "boom" of extensive technology foresight studies based on the use of the Delphi method. This study examines critically e.g. national foresight studies made in Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and Austria. The study suggests that the epistemic paradigm of the general theory of consistency (GTC), presented in the book, can provide working epistemic foundations for futures studies and for technology foresight Delphi studies in special. Results of the national foresight exercises are examined with an epistemic utility model based on GTC. The epistemic utility is a modification of the traditional utility concept of investment theory. New conceptual tools are used for the analysis of the expertise and information policies of different expert groups in technology Delphi studies. Empirical background of discussion are three technology Delphi studies made by the author. They concerned use of computer based information services of households, new biotechnology and the material technology. Based on these studies a special interpretation of the Delphi method is provided: the Argument Delphi.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuusi, Osmo, 1999. "Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies," Research Reports 59, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fer:resrep:59
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    File URL: https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148479
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    Cited by:

    1. Rikkonen, Pasi & Tapio, Petri & Rintamäki, Heidi, 2019. "Visions for small-scale renewable energy production on Finnish farms – A Delphi study on the opportunities for new business," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 939-948.
    2. Matti Karvonen & Ville Ryynänen & Tuomo Kässi, 2009. "The Delphi Method As A Tool For Analyzing Technology Evolution: Case Open Source Thin Computing," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 327-340.
    3. Dufva, Mikko & Ahlqvist, Toni, 2015. "Knowledge creation dynamics in foresight: A knowledge typology and exploratory method to analyse foresight workshops," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-268.
    4. Gustafsson, Robin & Kuusi, Osmo & Meyer, Martin, 2015. "Examining open-endedness of expectations in emerging technological fields: The case of cellulosic ethanol," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 179-193.
    5. Aurélie Girard & Bernard Fallery & Florence Rodhain, 2013. "Integration of Social Media in Recruitment: A Delphi Study," Post-Print hal-00998494, HAL.
    6. Varho, Vilja & Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025--`soft' scenarios based on expert views," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(15), pages 1930-1947, October.
    7. Kunttu, Janni & Hurmekoski, Elias & Heräjärvi, Henrik & Hujala, Teppo & Leskinen, Pekka, 2020. "Preferable utilisation patterns of wood product industries' by-products in Finland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Christoph Markmann & Alexander Spickermann & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Alexander Brem, 2021. "Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
    9. Tuomo Uotila & Toni Ahlqvist, 2007. "Linking Technology Foresight and Regional Innovation Activities: Network Facilitating Innovation Policy in Lahti Region, Finland," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1423-1443, July.
    10. Paméla Baillette & Bernard Fallery, 2016. "La méthode du Delphi argumentaire, une innovation managériale dans le cadre d'un projet complexe," Post-Print hal-02160359, HAL.
    11. Jukka Bergman & Ari Jantunen & Juha-Matti Saksa, 2009. "Enabling Open Innovation Process Through Interactive Methods: Scenarios And Group Decision Support Systems," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 139-156.
    12. Lehtonen, Olli & Tykkyläinen, Markku, 2014. "Delphi path simulator for unveiling development opportunities in the forest industries by contrasting forest management practices — The case of North Karelia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 171-185.
    13. Packalen, Tuula & Kärkkäinen, Leena & Toppinen, Anne, 2017. "The future operating environment of the Finnish sawmill industry in an era of climate change mitigation policies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 30-40.
    14. Hurmekoski, Elias & Lovrić, Marko & Lovrić, Nataša & Hetemäki, Lauri & Winkel, Georg, 2019. "Frontiers of the forest-based bioeconomy – A European Delphi study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 86-99.
    15. Seppänen, Hannes & Luokkala, Pekka & Zhang, Zhe & Torkki, Paulus & Virrantaus, Kirsi, 2018. "Critical infrastructure vulnerability—A method for identifying the infrastructure service failure interdependencies," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 25-38.
    16. Minttu Laukkanen & Samuli Patala, 2014. "Analysing Barriers To Sustainable Business Model Innovations: Innovation Systems Approach," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(06), pages 1-21.
    17. Makkonen, Mari & Pätäri, Satu & Jantunen, Ari & Viljainen, Satu, 2012. "Competition in the European electricity markets – outcomes of a Delphi study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 431-440.
    18. Bonacina, Monica & Cret, Anna & Sileo, Antonio, 2009. "Gas storage services and regulation in Italy: A Delphi analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1277-1288, April.
    19. Huan-Niemi, Ellen & Niskanen, Olli & Rikkonen, Pasi & Rintamaki, Heidi, 2015. "Forecasting mitigation measures for agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Finland," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211751, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Osmo Kuusi & Martin Meyer, 2007. "Anticipating technological breakthroughs: Using bibliographic coupling to explore the nanotubes paradigm," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 70(3), pages 759-777, March.
    21. Bálint Balázs & Eszter Kelemen & Tiziana Centofanti & Marta W. Vasconcelos & Pietro P. M. Iannetta, 2021. "Policy Interventions Promoting Sustainable Food- and Feed-Systems: A Delphi Study of Legume Production and Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-43, July.
    22. Pasi Rikkonen & Jyrki Aakkula & Jari Kaivo-oja, 2004. "How can future long-term changes in finnish agriculture and agricultural policy be faced? defining strategic agendas on the basis of a delphi study," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 147-168, September.

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