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Using machine learning algorithms to find patterns in stock prices

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  • Pedro N. Rodríguez
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

We use a machine learning algorithm called Adaboost to find direction-of-change patterns for the S&P 500 index using daily prices from 1962 to 2004. The patterns are able to identify periods to take long and short positions in the index. This result, however, can largely be explained by first-order serial correlation in stock index returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro N. Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Using machine learning algorithms to find patterns in stock prices," Working Papers 2006-12, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2006-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    3. Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
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