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Effects of fiscal consolidation envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes on public debt dynamics in EU Member States

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  • Katia Berti
  • Francisco de Castro
  • Matteo Salto

Abstract

This paper presents a simple analysis of the public debt-to-GDP ratio responses to fiscal consolidation efforts envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes presented by EU Member States. In this paper we assess the response of the debt-to-GDP ratio to the fiscal consolidation efforts envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) presented by EU Member States, under different assumptions on the underlying fiscal multipliers. The effects of fiscal consolidation are assessed against a counterfactual no-consolidation scenario, in which the structural primary balance is kept constant at 2012 value. We show that large fiscal multipliers lead to temporary increases in the debt ratio following consolidation, relative to the no-consolidation baseline. However, for high but plausible values of the multipliers, such counter-intuitive effects are relatively short-lived (maximum three years from the beginning of the consolidation programme). Increases in the debt ratio are anyway more protracted if financial markets react myopically to consolidation efforts (demanding higher yields). Despite the possible negative short-term effects, consolidation is needed as the debt dynamic in absence of policy intervention is in many cases quite steep and further debt increases would raise the likelihood of a self-defeating dynamics in the future. Based on our simple analytical framework, short-term increases in the debt ratio (relative to baseline) following consolidation could take place for a group of countries expected to experience high fiscal multipliers, including Belgium, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Katia Berti & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2013. "Effects of fiscal consolidation envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes on public debt dynamics in EU Member States," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 504, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0504
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    Cited by:

    1. Vasileios Spyrakis & Stelios Kotsios, 2021. "Public debt dynamics: the interaction with national income and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment - Un programma di politica fiscale-monetaria contro l’indebitamento e l’impoverimento della Grecia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 243-261.
    3. Tamborini, Roberto & Tomaselli, Matteo, 2020. "The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Alin -Vasile STRÄ‚CHINARIU, 2021. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Public Debt Dynamics," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(23), pages 1-9.
    5. Luciano Andreozzi & Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "Why is Europe engaged in an inter- dependence war, and how can it be stopped?," DEM Working Papers 2017/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Fragetta, Matteo & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "It's not austerity. Or is it? Assessing the effect of austerity on growth in the European Union, 2010-15," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 196-212.
    8. Rosaria Rita Canale & Giorgio Liotti, 2022. "Absolute Poverty and Sound Public Finance in the Eurozone," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 327-344, June.
    9. Matteo Fragetta & Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "It’s not austerity. Or is it? Assessing the effect of austerity on growth in Europe, 2010-15," DEM Working Papers 2017/10, Department of Economics and Management.
    10. Garbellini, Nadia, 2014. "Small fiscal multipliers do not justify austerity: a macroeconomic accounting analysis of public debt-to-gdp dynamics," MPRA Paper 62231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme Against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment," MPRA Paper 57080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Canale, Rosaria Rita & Liotti, Giorgio & Marani, Ugo, 2019. "Structural public balance adjustment and poverty in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-236.
    13. Luciano Andreozzi & Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "We need more Europe in the Monetary Union. Which Europe? Hints from policy games," EconPol Working Paper 5, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Andreozzi, Luciano & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Models of supranational policymaking and the reform of the EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 819-844.
    15. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Public Debt–Growth Relationship: The Role of the Expenditure Multiplier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    16. Pompeo Della Posta & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "The existential trilemma of EMU in a model of fiscal target zone," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1, pages 1-16.
    17. Castro, Gabriela & Félix, Ricardo M. & Júlio, Paulo & Maria, José R., 2015. "Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 276-294.
    18. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    19. El Mostafa Bentour, 2022. "The effects of public debt accumulation and business cycle on government spending multipliers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(19), pages 2231-2256, April.
    20. Zareh Asatryan & Xavier Debrun & Annika Havlik & Friedrich Heinemann & Martin G. Kocher & Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Which Role for a European Minister of Economy and Finance in a European Fiscal Union?," EconPol Policy Reports 6, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    21. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    22. Erotokritos Varelas, 2015. "Number of Banks, Public Debt, and Workable Competition," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 41-51, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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