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The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Public Debt Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Alin -Vasile STRÄ‚CHINARIU

    (Alexan I. Cuza University)

Abstract

The paper examines the determinants of public debt in EU Member States, including the United Kingdom, from 2005 to 2019. The research` s aim is to estimate the correlation of each macroeconomic indicator, as current account balance, real effective exchange rate, export market share, nominal unit labour cost index, unemployment rate to public debt, using a multiple regression on panel data, the contribution that the United Kingdom has had in the whole mechanism of the Union. Also, among the objectives is the capture of some proposals for a better limitation of the increasing levels of the member countries` debts, taking into account the impact of Covid 19, which at this date cannot be estimated accurately. The results, in this sense, seem to indicate an acceleration of the level of debt that tends to increase in most member countries to limit and stabilize some severely affected economies. The main contribution of the paper is providing a viable solution for recovery and constant economic growth in order to reduce the public debt at the level of the member countries of the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Alin -Vasile STRÄ‚CHINARIU, 2021. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Public Debt Dynamics," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(23), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:alu:journl:v:2:y:2021:i:23:p:9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomislav GLOBAN & Marina MATOŠEC, 2016. "Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio in New EU Member States: Cut the Numerator or Increase the Denominator?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 57-72, September.
    2. Slawomir Czech & Magdalena Tusinska, 2016. "Economic growth, public debt and social spending. Should welfare state take the blame?," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15(1), pages 33-45, March.
    3. Jernej Mencinger & Aleksander Aristovnik & Miroslav Verbic, 2014. "The Impact of Growing Public Debt on Economic Growth in the European Union," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 403-403, February.
    4. Katia Berti & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2013. "Effects of fiscal consolidation envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes on public debt dynamics in EU Member States," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 504, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; multiple regression; public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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