Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis
AbstractWe discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on the countries concerned by examining the case of Thai flooding in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM and utilizing short-run forecast for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will be moderate, because many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in its series Working Papers with number DP-2013-08.
Length: 31 pages.
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
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Thailand; flood; new economic geography; computable general equilibrium models; disaster management;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-07-15 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2013-07-15 (Development)
- NEP-GEO-2013-07-15 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-SEA-2013-07-15 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2013.
"Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 145-153.
- Kenmei Tsubota & Satoru Kumagai & Kazunobu Hayakawa & Ikumo Isono & Souknilanh Keola, 2013. "Geographical Simulation Analysis for Logistics Enhancement in Asia," EcoMod2013 5006, EcoMod.
- Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2012. "Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 369, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
- Ikumo Isono & Fukunari Kimura, 2011. "Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2011-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
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