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Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis

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Author Info

  • Ikumo Isono

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia)

  • Satoru Kumagai

    (Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDEJETRO))

Abstract

We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on the countries concerned by examining the case of Thai flooding in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM and utilizing short-run forecast for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will be moderate, because many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in its series Working Papers with number DP-2013-08.

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Length: 31 pages.
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2013-08

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Related research

Keywords: Thailand; flood; new economic geography; computable general equilibrium models; disaster management;

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  1. Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2013. "Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 145-153.
  2. Ikumo Isono & Fukunari Kimura, 2011. "Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2011-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
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