IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/emc/thgrad/tesg008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determining causal inference in linear and non-linear time-series using convergent cross mapping. An application of government expenditure and economic growth relation in Mexico 1980-2015

Author

Listed:
  • Rubi Tonantzin Gutiérrez Villanueva

    (Division of Economics, CIDE)

Abstract

This study has two major purposes: (1) to identify casual inference in time-series using Granger causality tests and Convergent Cross Mapping (Sugihara et. al., 2012) and (2) to investigate the economic growth and government expenditure relation in Mexico. Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) has shown a high potential to perform casual inference in complex systems and non-linear system and has been used as an alternative approach to Granger causality. On the other hand, we show that CCM fails to infer causality direction in linear time-series and in time-series with structural breaks. On the other hand, we demostrate that Toda-Yamamoto test (Toda and Yamamoto, 1995) succesfully detects causal relation linear systems and systems with structural breaks. Besides, we evaluate the causal relation between government expenditure and economic growth in Mexico then we evaluate the validity of Wagner's law and the Keynesian view. The empirical results suggests that Wagner's law holds for Mexico for the period 1980 to 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubi Tonantzin Gutiérrez Villanueva, 2016. "Determining causal inference in linear and non-linear time-series using convergent cross mapping. An application of government expenditure and economic growth relation in Mexico 1980-2015," Graduate theses (Spanish) TESG 008, CIDE, División de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:emc:thgrad:tesg008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/RePEc/emc/pdf/thgrad/TESG008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    3. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    2. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "The determinants of health expenditure in Malaysia: A time series analysis," MPRA Paper 24356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. V. Chandran Govindaraju & Ramesh Rao & Sajid Anwar, 2011. "Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: a re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 203-219, August.
    5. Tswakae Sebotsa & Josef De Beer & Jeanne Kriek, 2019. "Self-directed learning and teacher professional development: An adapted Profile of Implementation," Proceedings of Teaching and Education Conferences 9612181, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Shahid Ali & Naved Ahmad, 2010. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidences Based on Time Series Data from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 497-512.
    7. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 393-406, September.
    8. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    9. Haiqing Yu & Shukuan Zhao & Xiaobo Xu & Yilin Wang, 2014. "An Empirical Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Higher Educational Investment and Economic Growth using VAR Model," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 461-470, May.
    10. Thabane, Kanono & Lebina, Sello, 2016. "Economic Growth and Government Spending Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Lesotho," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(1), January.
    11. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Ioannis Kostakis, 2019. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 269-291, April.
    12. Ahmad, Riayati & Hasan, Junaidah, 2016. "Public Health Expenditure, Governance and Health Outcomes in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 50(1), pages 29-40.
    13. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    14. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    15. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries," Working Papers 2012.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    16. Emre Atilgan & Dilek Kilic & Hasan Murat Ertugrul, 2017. "The dynamic relationship between health expenditure and economic growth: is the health-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(5), pages 567-574, June.
    17. Kashif MUNIR & Wajid ALI, 2019. "Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Role of aggregate and disaggregate expenditure in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 181-200, Winter.
    18. Selçuk Çağrı ESENER & Evren İPEK, 2018. "The Impacts of Public Expenditure, Government Stability and Corruption on Per Capita Growth: An Empirical Investigation on Developing Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(36).
    19. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Testing Wagner's Law in the Presence of Structural Changes: New Evidence from Six African Countries (1960-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6.
    20. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Multivariate Granger Causality and the Dynamic Relationship between Health Care Spending, Income and Relative Price of Health Care in Malaysia," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(2), pages 199-214, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; Convergent Cross Mapping; Granger Causality Tests; Government Expenditure; Economic Growth; Mexico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emc:thgrad:tesg008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alfonso Miranda (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cideemx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.