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The Swiss black swan bad scenario: is Switzerland another casualty of the Eurozone crisis

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  • Lleo, Sebastien
  • Ziemba, Bill

Abstract

Financial disasters to hedge funds, bank trading departments and individual speculative traders and investors seem to always occur because of non-diversification in all possible scenarios, being overbet and being hit by a bad scenario. Black swans are the worst type of bad scenario: unexpected and extreme. The Swiss National Bank decision on January 15, 2015 to abandon the 1.20 peg against the euro was a tremendous blow for many Swiss exporters, but also Swiss and international investors, hedge funds, global macro funds, banks as well as the Swiss central bank. In this paper we discuss the causes for this action, the money losers and the few winners, what it means for Switzerland, Europe and the rest of the world, what kinds of trades lost and how they have been prevented.

Suggested Citation

  • Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, Bill, 2015. "The Swiss black swan bad scenario: is Switzerland another casualty of the Eurozone crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65107, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:65107
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/65107/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Oktay, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: the Swiss franc appreciation of 2015," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Markus Hertrich, 2022. "Foreign exchange interventions under a minimum exchange rate regime and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 450-489, May.
    3. Meng-Leong How & Yong Jiet Chan & Sin-Mei Cheah, 2020. "Predictive Insights for Improving the Resilience of Global Food Security Using Artificial Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Daniel Broby & Raphael Faessler & Milenko Josavac & Christophe Dehut, 2016. "The Impact of the (2011) Devaluation of the Swiss Franc on Eurozone Equity Benchmark Diversification," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1270-1286.
    5. Darko B. Vukovic & Carlos J. Rincon & Moinak Maiti, 2021. "Price distortions and municipal bonds premiums: evidence from Switzerland," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Heidorn, Thomas & Pavicic, Tim & Sieber, Antje, 2022. "Corporate FX hedging: An introduction for the corporate treasury," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 233, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Swiss franc; euro peg; black swans; currency trading losses; Swiss exports; quantitative easing; negative interest rates. intermediation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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