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Beyond zeroes and ones: the severity and evolution of civil conflict

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  • Chaudoin, Stephen
  • Peskowitz, Zachary
  • Stanton, Christopher

Abstract

We assess risk factors affecting the severity and dynamics of civil wars, departing from analyses focused primarily on static models of the effect of income on the extensive margin of conflict. Civil conflicts are shown to be persistent, but rarely do they become more severe in response to past fighting. Substantial heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion is documented: severe fighting lasts longest in poor countries and ethnically fractionalized countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaudoin, Stephen & Peskowitz, Zachary & Stanton, Christopher, 2013. "Beyond zeroes and ones: the severity and evolution of civil conflict," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59077, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:59077
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/59077/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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