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The relationship between REER and trade flows in the context of the equilibrium exchange rate

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Reimo Juks ()
Abstract

The paper focuses on the time-series analysis of the traditional trade equations. The results from the cointegration, ARDL and Granger causality analyses of trade elasticities cast some doubt on the usefulness of the internal-external balance approach to the equilibrium exchange rate. The long-run impact of the REER on trade flows turned out to be statistically insignificant, being independent of method and specification of the model employed. The latter implies a secondary role for the REER in achieving a sustainable position of external balance.

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File URL: http://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/uuringud/_2003/_9_2003/wp_903.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2003-9.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2003
Date of revision: 11 Nov 2003
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2003-09

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Søren Johansen, 1994. "The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 205-229. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Marit Hinnosaar & Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uusküla, 2005. "Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Estonian kroon," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
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