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Forecasting Cross-Section Stock Returns using The Present Value Model

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Abstract

We contribute to the debate over whether forecastable stock returns reflect an unexploited profit opportunity or rationally reflect risk differentials. We test whether agents could earn excess returns by selecting stocks which have a low market price compared to an estimate of the fundamental value obtained from the present value model. The criterion for stock picking is one which could actually have been implemented by agents in real time. We show that statistically significant, and quantitatively substantial, excess returns are delivered by portfolios of stocks which are cheap relative to our estimate of fundamental value. There is no evidence that the under priced stocks are relatively risky and hence excess returns cannot easily be interpreted as an equilibrium compensation for risk.

Suggested Citation

  • George Bulkley & Richard W P Holt, 2007. "Forecasting Cross-Section Stock Returns using The Present Value Model," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 163, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    excess returns; trading rule; efficient markets; present value model; stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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