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Evaluating market risk from leveraged derivative exposures

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  • Jukonis, Audrius

Abstract

Market participants use leveraged derivatives to gain access to equity market exposure through broker banks. Leverage and interconnectedness via overlapping portfolios of dealer banks can amplify adverse market movements, potentially causing sizeable losses. I propose a model, based on granular data, to simulate losses from a banks’ trading book in case of an adverse market scenario. Following a move in asset prices, banks mark their positions and issue margin calls; some (leveraged) counterparties fail to pay their margins, forcing banks to liquidate their positions causing a pressure on asset prices due to market impact. The impact is amplified because of the leverage and when counterparties are exposed to multiple banks over the same underlying. I employ the model to assess current capital and margin rules in covering risks from broker’s exposure to highly leveraged clients. JEL Classification: C60, G23, G13, G17

Suggested Citation

  • Jukonis, Audrius, 2022. "Evaluating market risk from leveraged derivative exposures," Working Paper Series 2722, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222722
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Fukker, Gábor & Kaijser, Michiel & Mingarelli, Luca & Sydow, Matthias, 2022. "Contagion from market price impact: a price-at-risk perspective," Working Paper Series 2692, European Central Bank.
    5. Sébastien Pérez-Duarte & Grzegorz Skrzypczynski, 2019. "Two is company, three’s a crowd: automated pairing and matching of two-sided reporting in EMIR derivatives’ data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Andreas Schrimpf & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2020. "Leverage and margin spirals in fixed income markets during the Covid-19 crisis," BIS Bulletins 2, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Fricke, Daniel, 2021. "Synthetic leverage and fund risk-taking," Discussion Papers 09/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Bence Toth & Yves Lemperiere & Cyril Deremble & Joachim de Lataillade & Julien Kockelkoren & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Anomalous price impact and the critical nature of liquidity in financial markets," Papers 1105.1694, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Gric & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana, 2023. "What Drives Sectoral Differences in Currency Derivate Usage in a Small Open Economy? Evidence from Supervisory Data," Working Papers 2023/12, Czech National Bank.
    2. Jukonis, Audrius & Letizia, Elisa & Rousová, Linda, 2022. "The impact of derivatives collateralisation on liquidity risk: evidence from the investment fund sector," Working Paper Series 2756, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMIR; Initial margin; leverage; market risk; Variation margin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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