Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: the role of news
AbstractThe aim of this study is to assess empirically to what extent the degree of heterogeneity of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations is driven by the flow of information related to current and future price developments in the euro area. We conduct the analysis both on an aggregate level for the euro area as well as for a set of countries using panel techniques. We find that the degree to which consumers’ expectations are discordant is negatively related to news intensity. Moreover, the results suggest that the absolute bias in expectations decreases as news become more intense and this effect has become more pronounced since the introduction of the common currency. JEL Classification: D12, D84, E31
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1088.
Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-09-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2009-09-26 (European Economics)
- NEP-MON-2009-09-26 (Monetary Economics)
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- Ehrmann, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Fratzcher, M., 2010.
"The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3763052, Tilburg University.
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