IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/drm/wpaper/2020-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Economic Sanctions: Multipurpose Index Modelling in the Ukrainian Crisis Case

Author

Listed:
  • Nady Rapelanoro
  • BALI Morad

Abstract

This short paper’s goal is to create a sanction index to simulate international economic sanctions. To do so, it has been decided to focus on the Ukrainian crisis case, and on international sanctions against the Russian Federation. The first part of this paper treats the methodology and mathematical formalization used to build our index. After the mathematical formalization comes an empirical part that is demonstrating improvements brought by our work. To assess these improvements, our index is compared to a previously developed index from Kholodilin and Netšunajev (2016). Four country SVAR models are used in two main sections, two initials and two extended. Results of this section reveal that our new sanction index has a stronger explanatory power. In addition, it seems that our index affects short-term Russian production variations more sharply than its predecessor. The explanatory power improvements are confirmed by extended models, confirming our index relevance.

Suggested Citation

  • Nady Rapelanoro & BALI Morad, 2020. "International Economic Sanctions: Multipurpose Index Modelling in the Ukrainian Crisis Case," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-8, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2020-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2020/WP_EcoX_2020-8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caruso Raul, 2003. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-36, April.
    2. Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 5(44), pages 587-591.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    4. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Barbara Oegg, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on US Trade: Andrew Rose's Gravity Model," Policy Briefs PB03-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2016. "Crimea and Punishment: The Impact of Sanctions on Russian and European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1569, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morad Bali, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Russia and its Six Greatest European Trade Partners," Post-Print halshs-01918521, HAL.
    2. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    3. Morad Bali & Nady Rapelanoro, 2021. "How to simulate international economic sanctions: A multipurpose index modelling illustrated with EU sanctions against Russia," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 25-39.
    4. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
    5. Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The cost of sanctions: Estimating lost trade with gravity," Kiel Working Papers 2093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Tibor Besedeš & Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2024. "Smart or smash? The effect of financial sanctions on trade in goods and services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 223-251, February.
    7. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "The global sanctions data base," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр), 2017. "Illegal Re-Export and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Russian Food Embargo in 2014 [Незаконный Реэкспорт И Анализ Эффективности Российского Продовольственного Эмбарго 2014 Года]," Working Papers 041705, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2016. "Crimea and Punishment: The Impact of Sanctions on Russian and European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1569, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Anirudh Shingal, 2023. "Sanctions and services trade: the neglected dimension," RSCAS Working Papers 2023/39, European University Institute.
    12. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2019. "Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 39-51.
    13. Frank, Jonas, 2018. "The effects of economic sanctions on trade: New evidence from a panel PPML gravity approach," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 17-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    14. Бородин К.Г., 2018. "Оценка Влияния Продовольственного Эмбарго И Экономических Санкций На Товарные Рынки (На Примере Рынков Мяса)," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 54(4), pages 41-59, октябрь.
    15. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc & Konstantin Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2015. "The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1488, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Bayramov, Vugar & Rustamli, Nabi & Abbas, Gulnara, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 92-109.
    18. Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр), 2018. "The Russian Food Embargo, its Impact on Food Imports, and the Role of Third Countries in Violating the Embargo (Re-Export) [Российское Продуктовое Эмбарго, Его Влияние На Импорт Продовольственных Т," Working Papers 041802, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    19. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    20. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc & Konstantin Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2015. "The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1488, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, 2017. "The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 537-552, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; European economies; Ukrainian crisis; economic sanctions; sanctions shock; trade relations; international crisis; structural vector autoregressive models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2020-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valerie Mignon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/modemfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.