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Correlation Neglect in Financial Decision-Making

Author

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  • Erik Eyster
  • Georg Weizsäcker

Abstract

Good decision-making often requires people to perceive and handle a myriad of statistical correlations. Notably, optimal portfolio theory depends upon a sophisticated understanding of the correlation among financial assets. In this paper, we examine people's understanding of correlation using a sequence of portfolio-allocation problems and find it to be strongly imperfect. Our experiment uses pairs of portfolio-choice problems that have the same asset span - identical sets of attainable returns - and differ only in the assets' correlation. While any outcome-based theory of choice makes the same prediction across paired problems, subjects behave very differently across pairs. We find evidence for correlation neglect - treating correlated variables as uncorrelated - as well as for a form of "1/N heuristic" - investing half of wealth each of the two available assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Eyster & Georg Weizsäcker, 2011. "Correlation Neglect in Financial Decision-Making," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1104, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1104
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.368611.de/dp1104.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2021. "A maximum likelihood approach to combining forecasts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104116, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Maxim Senkov & Toygar T. Kerman, 2024. "Changing Simplistic Worldviews," Papers 2401.02867, arXiv.org.
    3. Michael Ungeheuer & Martin Weber, 2021. "The Perception of Dependence, Investment Decisions, and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 797-844, April.
    4. Laohakunakorn, Krittanai & Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2019. "Private and common value auctions with ambiguity over correlation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101410, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Schottmüller, Christoph, 2019. "Why Echo Chambers are Useful," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203517, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Yiling Chen & Alon Eden & Juntao Wang, 2021. "Cursed yet Satisfied Agents," Papers 2104.00835, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    7. Pinger, Pia & Schäfer, Sebastian & Schumacher, Heiner, 2018. "Locus of control and consistent investment choices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 66-75.
    8. Hwang, In Do, 2021. "Prospect theory and insurance demand: Empirical evidence on the role of loss aversion," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2017. "Bounded Rationality And Learning: A Framwork and A Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2017.
    10. Samarth Vaidya & Rupayan Gupta, 2016. "Corruption Via Media Capture: The Effect of Competition," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1327-1348, April.
    11. Weber, Martin & Ungeheuer, Michael, 2016. "The Perception of Dependence and Investment Decisions," CEPR Discussion Papers 11188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2018. "Information diffusion in networks with the Bayesian Peer Influence heuristic," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 262-270.
    13. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2018. "Information diffusion in networks with the Bayesian Peer Influence heuristic," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86554, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Inés Moreno de Barreda & Gilat Levy & Ronny Razin, 2017. "Persuasion with Correlation Neglect: Media Power via Correlation of News Content," Economics Series Working Papers 836, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Ole Jann, 2018. "Why Echo Chambers are Useful," Economics Series Working Papers 857, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2018. "Social Learning with Model Misspeciification: A Framework and a Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jul 2018.
    17. Filiz, Ibrahim & Nahmer, Thomas & Spiwoks, Markus & Gubaydullina, Zulia, 2020. "Measurement of risk preference," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    18. David B. Johnson & Matthew D. Webb, 2017. "An Experimental Test of the No Safety Schools Theorem," Carleton Economic Papers 17-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    19. Laohakunakorn, Krittanai & Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2019. "Private and common value auctions with ambiguity over correlation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Pinger, Pia & Schäfer, Sebastian & Schumacher, Heiner, 2018. "Locus of control and consistent investment choices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 66-75.
    21. Daniel Gottlieb & Kent Smetters, 2012. "Narrow Framing and Life Insurance," NBER Working Papers 18601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2022. "Combining forecasts in the presence of ambiguity over correlation structures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio choice; correlation neglect; 1/n heuristic; biases in beliefs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B49 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Other

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