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Marriage formation as a process intermediary between migration and childbearing

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  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Lesia Nedoluzhko

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

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    Abstract

    In studies of differences in fertility between migrants and non-migrants, marriage interferes because migration can be motivated by an impending marriage or can entail entry into a marriage market with new opportunities. One would therefore expect elevated fertility after migration, although a competing theory states that on the contrary fertility ought to be reduced in the time around the move because migration temporarily disturbs the life of the migrant. In any case marriage appears as a process that is intermediary between migration and childbearing. To handle such issues it pays to have a technique that allows the analyst to separate any disruptive effects of migration from any boosting effects of marriage in studies of childbearing. The purposes of the present paper is (i) to remind us that such a technique is available, in fact is straightforward, and (ii) to apply the technique to further analyze a set of data on migration and first-time parenthood in Kyrgyzstan recently used by the second author and Gunnar Andersson. The technique has the neat feature that it allows us to operate with several “clocks” at the same time. In the analysis of first births we keep track of time since migration (for migrants) and time since marriage formation (for the married) beside the respondent’s age (for women at childbearing ages); in other connections there may be more clocks. For such analyses we make use of a flexible graphical housekeeping device that allows the analyst to keep track of a feature like whether migration occurs before or after marriage, or at the same time. This is a half-century-old flow chart of statuses and transitions and is not much more complex that the famous Lexis diagram, which originated with Gustav Zeuner, as we now know. These reflexions were first presented at a symposium dedicated to Professor Zeuner.

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    File URL: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-015.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2008-015.

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    Length: 13 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-015

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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    References

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    1. Vanessa Didelez, 2007. "Graphical Models for Composable Finite Markov Processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics & Finnish Statistical Society & Norwegian Statistical Association & Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 34(1), pages 169-185.
    2. Vanessa Didelez, 2008. "Graphical models for marked point processes based on local independence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 245-264.
    3. Courgeau, Daniel & Lelievre, Eva, 1993. "Event History Analysis in Demography," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287384.
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    Cited by:
    1. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Victor Agadjanian, 2009. "Marriage, childbearing, and migration in Kyrgyzstan: exploring interdependencies," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Victor Agadjanian, 2010. "Marriage, childbearing, and migration in Kyrgyzstan: Exploring interdependencies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(7), pages 159-188, February.
    3. Jan M. Hoem, 2013. "The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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