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Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing

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  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Michaela Kreyenfeld

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

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    Abstract

    Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, fertility by educational attainment)

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    File URL: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-006.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2006-006.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-006

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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    1. FFF1Øystein NNN1Kravdal, 2004. "An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6), pages 135-154, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Doreen Huschek & Helga de Valk & Aart C. Liefbroer, 2010. "Timing of first union among second-generation Turks in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(16), pages 473-504, March.
    2. Daniele Vignoli & Irene Ferro, 2009. "Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(4), pages 11-36, January.
    3. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176, August.
    4. David Clifford, 2009. "Spousal separation, selectivity and contextual effects: exploring the relationship between international labour migration and fertility in post-Soviet Tajikistan," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(32), pages 945-975, December.

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