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Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change

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Author Info
Donald W.K. Andrews () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Ray C. Fair () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

This paper extends the classical Chow (1960) test for structural change in linear regression models to a wide variety of nonlinear models, estimated by a variety of different procedures. Wald, Lagrange multiplier-like, and likelihood ratio-like test statistics are introduced. The results allow for heterogeneity and temporal dependence of general unifying results for estimation and testing in nonlinear parametric econometric models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 832.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1987
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Review of Economic Studies (1988), 55: 615-640
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:832

Note: CFP 713.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Chow test; dynamic model; econometric model; Lagrange multiplier test; likelihood ratio test; structural change; Wald test; nonlinear model;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Potscher, Benedikt M & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1989. "A Uniform Law of Large Numbers for Dependent and Heterogeneous Data Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 675-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1985. "Asymptotic Results for Generalized Wald Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 761R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1986. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard, J-F, 1980. "Models with Several Regimes and Changes in Exogeneity," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 1-20, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1977. "The Maximum Likelihood and the Nonlinear Three-Stage Least Squares Estimator in the General Nonlinear Simultaneous Equation Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 955-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Domowitz, Ian & White, Halbert, 1982. "Misspecified models with dependent observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 35-58, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Fair, Ray C., 1987. "Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change," Working Papers 636, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Lo, Andrew W. & Newey, Whitney K., 1985. "A large-sample chow test for the linear simultaneous equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 351-353. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jose Burguete & A. Ronald Gallant & Geraldo Souza, 1982. "On unification of the asymptotic theory of nonlinear econometric models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 151-190. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Charles Bates & Halbert White, 1984. "A Unified Theory of Consistent Estimation for Parametric Models," Working papers 359, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Bierens, Herman J., 1984. "Model specification testing of time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 323-353, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1986. "Consistency in Nonlinear Econometric Models: A Generic Uniform Law of Large Numbers," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 790, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  13. Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2008. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Break Point Estimators in Models Estimated via 2SLS," MPRA Paper 9472, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2008. "Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models estimated via two stage least squares," MPRA Paper 9251, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay, 2001. "Testing for Structural Change in the Presence of Auxiliary Models," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 133, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 813, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 839, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2005. "Don’t break the habit: structural stability tests of consumption asset pricing models in the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 289-296, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels, 1996. "Structural Change and Asset Pricing in Emerging Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 96s-34, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2004. "Don't break the habit: structural stability tests of consumption models in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 49, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," NBER Technical Working Papers 0079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Eric Ghysels, 1995. "On Stable Factor Structures in the Pricing of Risk," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-16, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajsek, 2003. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1987. "Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 832, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Pieter J. van der Sluis, 1997. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests for the Efficient Method of Moments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-054/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. Pieter J. van der Sluis, 1997. "Computationally Attractive Stability Tests for the Efficient Method of Moments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-087/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 1994. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 4660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.

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