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Protectionism Isn’t Counter-Cyclic (anymore)

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  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter-cyclic; tariffs, quotas and the like grow during recessions. While that may have been a valid description of the data before the Second World War, it is no longer accurate. In the post-war era, protectionism has not actually moved counter-cyclically. Tariffs and non-tariff barriers do not systematically rise during cyclic downturns; if anything, they tend to fall. I document this new stylized fact with a wide panel of data, using a variety of measures of protectionism and business cycles. I also provide some hints as to why protectionism is no longer counter-cyclic.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8937.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8937

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Keywords: barrier; business cycle; data; empirical; international; panel; policy; recession; tariff; trade;

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Cited by:
  1. Chad Bown & Meredith Crowley, 2013. "Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shock," Working Paper Series WP-2012-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2013. "Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 50-64.

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