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Protectionism Isn?t Counter-Cyclic (anymore)

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  • Rose, Andrew

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter-cyclic; tariffs, quotas and the like grow during recessions. While that may have been a valid description of the data before the Second World War, it is no longer accurate. In the post-war era, protectionism has not actually moved counter-cyclically. Tariffs and non-tariff barriers do not systematically rise during cyclic downturns; if anything, they tend to fall. I document this new stylized fact with a wide panel of data, using a variety of measures of protectionism and business cycles. I also provide some hints as to why protectionism is no longer counter-cyclic.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew, 2012. "Protectionism Isn?t Counter-Cyclic (anymore)," CEPR Discussion Papers 8937, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8937
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    Cited by:

    1. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2014. "Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-273.
    2. Замулин О.А. & Платонов К.Е., 2015. "Протекционизм Как Противоциклическая Политика," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 51(3), pages 3-18, июль.
    3. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2013. "Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 50-64.
    4. Du, Yingxin & Ju, Jiandong & Ramirez, Carlos D. & Yao, Xi, 2017. "Bilateral trade and shocks in political relations: Evidence from China and some of its major trading partners, 1990–2013," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 211-225.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Barrier; Business cycle; Data; Empirical; International; Panel; Policy; Recession; Tariff; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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